Liberty Flames vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Pick – NCAAF Week 7

The Liberty Flames go to Louisiana for a matchup against the UL Monroe Warhawks. Armed with a top quarterback prospect, Liberty is off to a 3-1 start a season after going 10-1 and beating another mid-major darling Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl. I think Liberty wanted something better than the Cure Bowl, but the same could be said for Coastal Carolina.

Liberty’s only loss was a 15-14 defeat against NC State last year. They fell against another ACC team this season, though this loss against Syracuse came a lot earlier in the year. Syracuse upset Liberty for a 24-21 win on September 24.

NFL hopeful Malik Willis came up with solid performance, having passed for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns, and 49 yards on the ground. Liberty was missing the extra gear to take the lead and pull away from the Orange. Since then, the Flames have a 36-12 win over UAB, and 41-13 most recently against Middle Tennessee.

That was an off game from Willis passing the ball. He passed for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Blue Raiders were unable to seize on Willis’ mistakes, though. Against a good team, the Flames might have been in for a big fight. Willis is projected to go off the board in the top-10, and in some cases, top-5 in the 2022 NFL Draft.

He has to be more careful and protect the ball better if he’s going to last in the NFL. Willis can run the ball, but that’s only going to take him so far as a professional. Against a bad UL Monroe team, this is a spot where he should be able to pad his stats.

UL Monroe has a 12-7 win over Jacksonville State and Troy, 29-16. However, against any team with a pulse, they’ve been next to useless. Their best game might be a 45-10 loss against Kentucky to open the season, and the only reason the score wasn’t more lopsided was because of self-inflicted wounds by the Wildcats.

The Warhawks have a tough assignment in Week 7 at home. After a 55-21 loss against Georgia State, it should only get tougher in this one. Head below for our free Liberty vs. UL Monroe pick on October 16, 2021.

Liberty Flames vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Liberty Flames -32.5 (-110) OFF Over 56.5 (-115)
UL Monroe Warhawks +32.5 (-110) OFF Under 56.5 (-105)
Team Data Liberty Flames UL Monroe Warhawks
Overall Record 5-1 2-3
ATS Record 5-1-0 1-3-1
Away/Home Record 2-1 0-2
ATS Away/Home 2-1-0 1-1-1
Points Per Game 35.3 15.6
Points Against Per Game 14.3 36.4
Passing Yards Per Game 247.8 152.
Rushing Yards Per Game 155.7 154.4

Liberty vs. UL Monroe Prediction:

Malik Willis goes into his seventh game this season with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 67.9% completions.

He had 3 interceptions against Middle Tennessee last week, but that was not like him, and the only game he’s thrown an interception.

Along with his arm, Willis is a runner with 498 yards and 7 touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. He had 944 yards and 14 touchdowns on 6.7 yards per carry last season.

After what many would consider a down performance for Willis last week, expect him to come back with fire versus a bad UL Monroe defense.

The Warhawks are allowing 471.2 yards and 36.4 points per game. That’s good for 120th and 118th in the FBS. They’ve been susceptible against the pass with over 300 yards allowed per game.

This is the perfect spot for Willis to shake off his 3 interceptions last weekend and deliver a stat padding blowout. While the offense is solid, the defense needs recognition as well.


Liberty Flames vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Betting Trends:

Liberty

  • 9-1 ATS in their previous ten games as a favorite
  • 10-1 ATS in their previous 11 games after covering the spread
  • 8-0 ATS in their previous eight games versus a team with a losing record
  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games versus the Sun Belt
  • 25-9 ATS in their previous 34 games on the road

UL Monroe

  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog
  • 3-12-1 ATS in their previous 16 non-conference games
  • 4-10-1 ATS in their previous 15 games versus a team with a winning record
  • 8-20-1 ATS in their previous 29 games
  • 0-4-1 ATS in their previous five games after allowing 40 points

Liberty are fifth in the nation with 266.2 yards allowed per game. They’ve held the opposition to 164.5 passing yards per game. I’m not too confident in this one for the UL Monroe passing game. It could get ugly for the Warhawks.

UL Monroe has cycled through quarterbacks this season and appear to be going with Chandler Rogers as their QB1 now. Rogers has passed for 2 touchdowns and 1 interception on 56% completions. I’m not sure where the Warhawks’ offense are going in this game, but it sure isn’t to the end zone.

This should be one where everything comes together for Liberty. Willis is going to come through with a big performance, while the defense likely isn’t allowing an anemic UL Monroe offense to go anywhere. The Warhawks are 130th in the FBS with 238 yards and just 15.6 points per game. Expect a 52-13 win in favor of Liberty at UL Monroe.

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Liberty vs. UL Monroe Pick
LIBERTY FLAMES -32.5