This Saturday night (7:30 pm ET) the number 9 ranked and undefeated (5-0) LSU Tigers travel to Gainesville to take on the number 12 ranked Florida Gators in the Swamp. Florida is coming off of a 31-6 spanking at the hands of number 1 Alabama, while LSU comes in on a roll after squeaking by Tennessee and West Virginia by scores of 16-14 and 20-14 in their last two games. Florida won last years meeting 13-3 down in the bayou, and has won 3 out of the last 4 matchups between the teams.
Florida’s offense is led by quarterback John Brantley, who missed some time last week against Alabama with sore ribs but is expected to play Saturday. If Brantley is unable to play or misses significant time, true freshman Trey Burton will likely be seeing the residual playing time. Burton has been a spark for the Gator offense out of the wildcat formation, running for 7 touchdowns on 15 carries for 60 yards, while also seeing time at wide receiver where he has 12 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. He is not nearly the passer that Brantley is however, and the offense would be decidedly one-dimensional with him running it.
The Tigers, despite their undefeated record, have had a number of issues this season, clock-management in particular, and were only able to eke out a win last week because their opponent was more mistake-prone than they were. LSU committed 4 turnovers and had 9 penalties against Tennessee last week, and a touchdown by running back Stevan Ridley with no time remaining sealed the win after the Tigers received new life following a Tennessee penalty for too many men on the field after quarterback Jordan Jefferson bobbled the snap and was tackled on the previous play. The Tigers will have to eliminate the mistakes in the Swamp against Florida or it could get ugly early, LSU has been far short of dominant so far this season and they have no faced competition the caliber of Florida thus far. Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will rotate at quarterback; they combined for 3 interceptions last week against Tennessee Jefferson has 6 picks on the season and has not thrown for over 100 yards for 4 straight games!
LSU is 1-4 in their last five games ATS against a team with a winning record, and Florida is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 against a team with a winning record and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The under is 9-4 in LSU’s last 13 games against a team with a winning record, and the under is 9-4 ion Florida’s last 13 conference games with the over 5-2 in the Gators last 7 overall.
LSU vs Florida Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
LSU Tigers +6.5
@ Florida Gators -6.5
Over 42.5 (-110)
Under 42.5 (-110)
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LSU vs. Florida Prediction for Week 6 Saturday Evening Game:
Spread Prediction (Top Play) – Take the Gators here, unless Brantley is out or significantly hampered by his rib injury Florida should be able to put up enough points to cover. LSU has not faced a defense the caliber of Florida’s all season, and their mistake-prone quarterbacks will be eaten alive by the Gator defense on the road. This should not be a high-scoring affair, but Florida will be able to cover the 6.5 point line. LSU’s luck runs out here, Florida bounces back from a tough loss last week with a win over a tough SEC opponent.
Over/Under Prediction – This will not be a high-scoring affair with two relatively stout defenses, and one inept offense with LSU and the possibility of Florida’s passing game being held back by Brantley’s injury. Look for the Gators to rely on the ground game more in this one to protect Brantley, and for Burton to see significant action, which will mean more running plays and less scoring. LSU will have a tough time mustering much of an offensive attack against the Gator defense and may be lucky to put up a touchdown or two.
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