Michigan MSU Spread Over/Under Pick College Football Week 7

The top game in the Big 10 this Saturday (12:00pm ET) features a pair of in-state rivals playing for more than just local bragging rights when the 11th ranked Michigan Wolverines (6-0) travel to East Lansing, MI to take on the 23rd ranked Michigan St. Spartans (4-1) in a contest that could go a long way toward deciding conference championship. The Wolverines have smoked their two Big 10 opponents, Northwestern by a score of 42-24 last week and Minnesota by a count of 58-0 two weeks ago. MSU also won their conference opener two weeks ago in a hard-fought 10-7 win at Ohio St. The Spartans will look to win their fourth straight game over their rivals for the first time in 50 years this week.

The Wolverines have averaged 38 points per game on offense (21st among FBS teams) and 457.5 yards per game (26th among FBS teams), the latter number good for second in the Big 10. Quarterback Denard Robinson, who had 337 yards passing last week in the win over Northwestern, averages 120 yards rushing and is the key to Michigan’s attack. On defense, Michigan has been much improved from a season ago ranking 9th among all FBS teams with 12.5 PPG allowed and 30th in total defense with 336.6 YPG allowed. Michigan St. has been a middle-of-the-pack team offensively, averaging 28 PPG (62nd among FBS teams) and 398 YPG (61st). The defense has been outstanding though, ranking in the top ten nationally in all of the major categories including points allowed with 10.2 per game (3rd nationally) and first in total defense with an astounding 173.4 YPG allowed.

Michigan vs. Michigan St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Michigan Wolverines +2.5
@Michigan St. Spartans -2.5

Game Total:

Over 49 (-110)
Under 49 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com <— $900 FREE on 1st deposit

Michigan vs. Michigan St. Pick:

The Wolverines have lost three straight games to their in-state rivals, including last year at home by a score of 34-17. The Spartans covered in all three of those victories on lines of +5, -4 and -3.5. Michigan is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 conference games. MSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record. In head-to-had play, the road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Robinson has struggled with turnovers this season, throwing nine INTs on the year 93rd worst in the nation), including three last week against Northwestern. He also struggled last year against MSU, with 3 INTs and only 86 yards rushing. MSU has allowed seven points or less four times this season, including the win over Ohio St. The under has come in for four of the Spartans five games this season, and with their struggles on offense and the resurgence of the Michigan defense, points could be at a premium again on Saturday. Robinson really has not been tested by a strong defense this season, and he was largely ineffective when he faced MSU last season. He is not likely to have much success through the air against a defense that has allowed only 109.4 YPG passing this season, and the running game will have to work for every yard they get. The Spartans will look to grind it out on offense as well and that makes the under a strong play in this game. Take the under in what has the makings of a old-school Big 10 slugfest in East Lansing.

PICK = Under 49