Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators Pick – NCAAF Week 9

The Missouri Tigers and Florida Gators have a date at the Swamp on Saturday night. This is the first game for Florida since a 41-38 loss versus the Texas A&M Aggies. At the point, Kyle Trask was rolling and in the Heisman consideration. Then Covid had to take down the Gators and they’ve been waiting out ever since.

I haven’t forgotten about Trask, but many others have focused their attention elsewhere by now. Despite sitting out the last few weeks, Trask can’t be discounted for the Heisman. It took people a little while to warm up to Joe Burrow, and it might be the same with Trask.

Burrow had some defense to work with on his team at LSU last season, while Trask has gotten no help from his defense in Gainesville. Florida is typically well-known for its aggressive and physical defense. They’ve churned out a lot of defensive talent in the NFL. However, the Gators have been MIA this season on the defensive side of the ball.

The SEC overall has shifted from being a defensive conference to one that sees plenty of points. Alabama has spearheaded that change in the SEC. Run the ball and play defense was their motto for years, but now they’re going up and down the field as quickly as possible. Florida has been doing the same this season behind Trask.

Florida enters this game with a record of 2-1. They’ve only played three games, with two wins over South Carolina and Florida, while losing to the Aggies before their season was sidelined. Missouri has played one more game than Florida this season. They’re going into the Swamp with a record of 2-2. Mizzou is coming off a 20-10 win over Kentucky, a week after they upset LSU by a score of 45-41.

Instead of a letdown spot against the Wildcats, Missouri beat a pretty good Kentucky team by a touchdown and field goal. They have a bigger challenge against Florida on the road this week, though. This will be the first road trip since losing to the Tennessee Vols, 35-12, on October 10. Florida is coming off a Covid outbreak with a lot of schedule changes the past three weeks. We’ll see if Mizzou can take advantage. Head below for our free Missouri vs. Florida pick for October 31, 2020.

Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators NCAAF Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Missouri +14 (-113)
  • Florida -14 (-107)
Moneyline:

  • Missouri (+395)
  • Florida (-500)
Total:

  • Over 61.5 (-105)
  • Under 61.5 (-115)

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Missouri vs. Florida Prediction:

Missouri will have a tall order in slowing down Kyle Trask. Florida really hasn’t had a strong quarterback since Tim Tebow. And while Trask isn’t the leader that Tebow is and doesn’t have the resume like his, he is going to be a better pro prospect. Trask has passed for 996 yards with 14 touchdowns and 1 interception.

He is completing over 70 percent of his passes. By all metrics, Trask has been better than his junior season. Trask passed for 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 66.9% completions in 2019. The last time we saw Trask on the field, he diced up Texas A&M for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Trask has avoided making mistakes this season, and he had a blemish free outing against a decent Aggies’ defense in that one. Overall on the season, the Gators are averaging 464 yards and 42.3 points per game in 2020. The best offense that Missouri has seen this season is Alabama in the season opener.

Don’t be fooled, Alabama could have very easily scored more than 38 points. Starters were pulled for the second half and the Crimson Tide laid off after going up 28-3 at the half. Mac Jones and Bama did whatever they wanted to against Missouri.

In their next performance against a capable offense, LSU scored 41 points in a 45-41 final in favor of Mizzou. Unlike Alabama, the Tigers had to keep scoring and they did. Myles Brennan threw for 430 yards and 4 touchdowns. You have to believe that Trask can do similar damage if the layoff doesn’t impact them too much.

I have faith in Trask and the Florida offense to do his part. However, it’s hard to feel confident in their defense. The Missouri offense has looked much better under freshman Connor Bazalak. He led the Tigers to the 45-41 win with 406 yards and 4 touchdowns. With Larry Rountree in the backfield, Bazalak gets some help. Rountree is one of the best runners in the nation. He’s rushed for 396 yards with 3 touchdowns and 4.6 yards per carry in 2020.

The Gators are getting shredded for 495 yards per game. They’ve given up 33 points a game going into this week. This isn’t the Florida defense that we’ve been accustomed to over the years. Missouri will have to score points to keep up with Trask and company, and I think they should keep this game within striking distance offensively. I think we should see points, so the OVER is likely worth a look.

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The Bet
OVER 61.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.