Navy San Diego State Spread and Predictions Poinsettia Bowl

The Navy Midshipmen (9-3) will take on the San Diego St. Aztecs (8-4) of the Mountain West Conference in this year’s Poinsettia Bowl this Thursday (8:00pm ET) in San Diego, CA. This will be the third trip to the Poinsettia Bowl for Navy, which will be playing in a bowl game in San Diego for 3rd time in the last six years, and figures to have a great deal of support with the largest Naval base on the West Coast located in San Diego. They trounced Colorado St. 51-30 in the first Poinsettia Bowl in 2005, and lost 35-32 to Utah in 2007 in their other appearance in the game. Navy comes into the game riding a four-game winning streak after defeating rival Army 31-17 on Dec. 11. San Diego St. trounced UNLV 48-14 in their last game on November 27.

Navy runs a triple-option offense led by quarterback/triggerman Ricky Dobbs who has 13 career 100-yard rushing games, and has run 869 yards and 13 touchdowns this season while compiling almost 1,300 yards passing for an offense that averages 31 points per game. Navy averages 298.7 YPG rushing, 5th best in the nation and 407.3 total YPG, ranking 40th in the nation. On defense, the Midshipmen have allowed 22.3 PPG and rank in the middle of the pack an YPG allowed with 371.2.

San Diego St. has been tough against the run this season, allowing the fewest rushing yards in the Mountain West Conference with 1.704, and an average of 135 YPG on the ground for the season. On offense, the Aztecs and quarterback Ryan Lindley in particular, can flat out throw the football. San Diego St. averages 297 YPG through the air, Lindley has been outstanding all season long with an average of 8.9 YPA and 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

Navy is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games against Mountain West Conference teams and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. San Diego St. is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The under is 5-2-1 in the Aztecs last 8 games on grass and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The under is 6-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 7 games on grass and the over is 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games.
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Navy vs. San Diego St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Navy Midshipmen +4
@ San Diego St. Aztecs -4

Game Total:

Over 60.5 (110)
Under 60.5 (110)

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Navy vs. San Diego St. Poinsettia Bowl Predictions:

Spread Prediction (Top Play) – Navy plays all of their opponents tough with their option offense and the Midshipmen will be pumped up to play in front of a supportive crowd in San Diego. The Aztecs have been tough against the run this season, but the triple option is a different animal and Dobbs and company will likely give them fits all game long. Navy can throw the ball as well, more so than most option-oriented teams, and the strain of having to defend an offense that they do not see often combined with clock-eating drives will wear down San Diego St. by the time the second half comes around.

SPREAD PREDICTION = (Top Play) Navy +3.5

Over/Under Prediction – The trend favors the under for Navy this season, the Midshipmen can eat up the clock with their ground game and will look to keep the quick-strike Aztec offense off of the field as much as possible. They should be able to control the clock enough to keep the score under the total and earn their tenth win for the second consecutive season for the first time ever.

TOTAL PREDICTION = Under 60.5