Navy vs. Memphis NCAAF Pick – Week 5

The Navy Midshipmen and Memphis Tigers will meet at the Liberty Bowl in Tennessee for an important early clash in the AAC. Navy and Memphis are both in the AAC West and it could very well come down to them by December. Tulane is the dark horse, while Houston have been the most disappointing team of the bunch.

With their quarterback returning in 2019, Houston were a hot pick to win the conference. However, they are going to have trouble winning their division let alone winning the AAC. Tulane might be the most dangerous team to watch down the stretch, but don’t sleep on Memphis and Navy.

Navy and Memphis head into Thursday night with perfect records of 2-0 and 3-0. Memphis got their season started earlier with a game against 15-10 win over Ole Miss. Wins against Southern and South Alabama followed the opening win against the Rebels.

They have showcased the ability to win a grind it out low-scoring contest or have the offense rolling in a higher scoring game. Nevertheless, their only impressive thus far has been against Ole Miss. Southern and South Alabama didn’t provide any test. They’ll open conference play against a tricky opponent on Thursday night at home.

Navy are always a tricky team to prepare for, along with the other triple-option programs. Army just about pulled an upset against Michigan, who didn’t come prepared to play and almost paid for it with a loss. The Midshipmen are going to bring that same level of unpredictability on the field against Memphis tonight.

Don’t come ready to play against triple-option and the yards can add up quickly on the ground. This is the fifth straight season that Memphis and Navy will meet, but Memphis haven’t been able to figure Navy out too well yet. Head below for our free Navy vs. Memphis pick.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers NCAAF Week 5 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Navy +10.5(-105)
  • Memphis -10.5(-115)

Total:

  • Over 54(-110)
  • Under 54(-110)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Navy vs. Memphis Pick:

Navy enter with a 2-0 record after downing Holy Cross and ECU. They did not provide much of a test, but Navy did what they had to do. In a year that has seen near upsets and upsets, the Midshipmen did not allow that to be a possibility. The military academy will face their real true test on the road against Memphis. If any of their previous matchups play out similarly, then this is going to make for a pretty entertaining game. Thursday Night Football in the NFL may garner most views, but Navy and Memphis are likely to have a good game.

The Midshipmen have played Memphis in every one of their meetings, which dates back to 2015. Navy have won three of four games, while in the only loss, they lost a close one by a score of 30-27. A triple-option is totally different than what Memphis have experienced this season, and judging by previous seasons, it’s something that they haven’t been great at defending. In their four games, Navy have averaged a whopping 350 rushing yards per game. Memphis have not been tested at all by an effective rushing game thus far. This will be their first game against an effective ground attack.

The Tigers are 40th in the FBS with 116.3 rushing yards allowed per game. Expect that number to go up considerably against Navy. The Midshipmen are 1st in college football with 371.5 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma are 2nd in the nation with 324.3 rushing yards a game, so it’s not even really close between Navy and everyone else. Against a team who is going to want to pound the ball and kill clock in this one, who have had success against Memphis, it seems like a lot of points.

Although, Navy do have a quarterback who can pass the ball as well. Malcolm Perry has passed for 2 touchdowns and has completed 11-of-16 passes. A high pass percentage can be deadly for a triple-option offense. It forces the secondary to at least honor the pass a bit. Perry rushed for 156 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. Navy should be able to keep this game within single digits on Thursday night, so the points look like the play.

The Bet
NAVY +10.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.