New Mexico Lobos vs. Texas A&M Aggies Pick – NCAAF Week 3

The New Mexico Lobos and Texas A&M Aggies have an early matchup on Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. New Mexico is going into College Station on a prayer hoping that Texas A&M is not focused.

For a massive upset, that’s what it is going to take. The Lobos have to bank on the Aggies beating themselves on Saturday. Texas A&M goes into Week 3 ranked No. 7 in the nation.

They feel like they’re a College Football Playoff team. And I’d say out of the teams not in the top-4 at the moment, I would take the Aggies over Oregon, Iowa, or Clemson who are the first teams out.

I understand why Oregon is No. 4 after their win at Ohio State, that’s not an easy thing to do, but really like this Aggies team. Texas A&M might be the most underrated team in the country despite just getting by against Colorado last weekend. It might be tough to reach the playoff this season, but Jimbo Fisher could have this program there before people expect.

The Aggies were close to having their season derailed against the Buffaloes in Boulder. Colorado were nipped by a score of 10-7, as the Aggies’ defense forced the Buffaloes into all kinds of headaches.

Colorado quarterback Brendon Lewis was limited to 89 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. If Lewis gets on track in that one, then Colorado likely wins and Texas A&M is going into Week 3 with a record of 1-1.

New Mexico is going into Week 3 with a record of 2-0 as well. The Lobos are coming off a 27-17 win over HBU and 34-25 over New Mexico State. I’m not sure either win says much about the Lobos. Their first real test will be at Kyle Field on Saturday. Head below for our free New Mexico vs. Texas A&M pick on September 18, 2021.

New Mexico Lobos vs. Texas A&M Aggies Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
New Mexico +29.5 (-110) OFF Over 50 (-113)
Texas A&M -29.5 (-110) OFF Under 50 (-107)
Team Data New Mexico Texas A&M
Overall Record 2-0 2-0
ATS Record 0-2-0 1-1-0
Away/Home Record 0-0-0 1-0-0
ATS Away/Home 0-0-0 0-1-0
Points Per Game 25.5 30.5
Points Against Per Game 21 8.5
Passing Yards Per Game 280 241.5
Rushing Yards Per Game 156.5 272.5

New Mexico vs. Texas A&M Prediction:

The Lobos are going to have to find a way to score in this one. This is where Texas A&M can really put a stranglehold on this game. The defensive identity for this squad has been much different since Jimbo Fisher has taken over on the sidelines. Some of those Johnny Manziel A&M teams were embarrassing on defense. That offense with this defense and the Aggies would be in the top-4 without any questions.

Texas A&M allowed an average of 317.3 yards per game last season. They gave up only 21.7 points per game in a tough conference to operate a defense. There are some really good offenses that Texas A&M has to deal with in the SEC. The Aggies look even faster and more physical than last year. How are the Lobos going to react to that speed on Saturday afternoon?

Aggies’ quarterback Terry Wilson Jr. will have to play with a head on a swivel. The former Kentucky Wildcat was never able to excel at Kentucky. He was serviceable with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 62.5% completions last year. His best asset was his legs, as Wilson gained 424 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. He’s off to a sharp start with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions on 73% completions.


New Mexico Lobos vs. Texas A&M Aggies Betting Trends:

New Mexico

  • 2-4 ATS in their previous six games
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games on the road
  • 0-12 overall in their previous 12 games on the road
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games in September
  • 1-9 overall in their previous ten Week 3 games

Texas A&M

  • 10-0 overall in their previous ten games
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games
  • 7-0 overall in their previous seven games at Texas A&M
  • 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 non-conference games
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games after an ATS loss

Wilson Jr. has SEC experience, but he’s going to need a lot of help from his teammates in this one. He doesn’t have the same weapons as he had at Kentucky, and it’s not like Wilson had the best in the SEC as a Wildcat. Bobby Cole is going to need a big game on the ground to keep the Aggies’ defense honest.

Cole ran for 107 yards and a touchdown on 5.3 yards per carry against New Mexico State. New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in the FBS, so you are not going to see the same against the Aggies, though.

They might sustain one or two drives, but it’s hard to see the New Mexico offensive line getting enough push against a fast and aggressive Aggies team. The run game won’t be there, and Wilson won’t be able to find passing lanes without it.

Texas A&M is third in the nation with just 99.5 passing yards allowed per game. They easily have the talent to match up well with the Lobos’ receivers. It comes down to how much Texas A&M wants to ring up the scoreboard on offense?

After the offense was closed for business last week in Boulder, I expect the Aggies to want to pile up the stats. Call it stat padding or what you, but Texas A&M is likely going to open things up on offense in this one on Saturday afternoon. Maybe not into the 50s, but they don’t need that many points to cover this number.

Expect the Aggies to hold the Lobos to 3-7 points on offense. It’s hard to see much more being generated from New Mexico in this one. Texas A&M should have enough in them for 38 or 42 points. I’m looking for Texas A&M to win and cover the 29.5 points at Kyle Field on Saturday.

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New Mexico vs. Texas A&M Pick
TEXAS A&M AGGIES -29.5