One of the top matchups in Big 12 play for week 12 of the 2011 college football season features the 5th ranked Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) traveling to Waco, TX to take on the Baylor Bears (6-3) this Saturday evening (8:00pm ET). Oklahoma has won their last two contests after suffering a devastating upset to Texas Tech by a score of 41-38 4 weeks ago, including a 41-25 defeat of Texas A&M in their last game on November 5 when they covered the 13.5 point line. Baylor has also won two straight games, including last week’s 31-30 nail-biter over Kansas on the road when they did not cover a 20.5 point line. Oklahoma is 6-3 ATS this season, while Baylor is 4-4 ATS.
The Sooners offense is one of the most dynamic in all of college football, ranking in the top ten in scoring with 45.4 points per game (6th), passing offense with 380.9 yards per game (3rd) and total offense with 545.9 YPG (4th). Quarterback Landry Jones (3,349 yards passing and 28 touchdowns) and receiver Kenny Stills (610 yards receiving and 8 TDs) are the main cogs for the unit with the loss of receiver Ryan Broyles and running back Dominique Whaley for the season to injury. The Sooner defense has allowed 19.8 PPG (21st nationally) and 360.2 YPG (47th nationally) on the season. Baylor features a dynamic offense of their own with quarterback Robert Griffin III (3,093 yards passing, 29 TDs, 5 INTs) leading a unit that averages 40.3 PPG (11th nationally) and ranks 2nd in total offense with 567.4 YPG. Defensively the Bears have been a sieve, ranking 108th in scoring defense with 36 PPG allowed and 111th in total defense with 459.3 YPG allowed.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Oklahoma Sooners -16
@Baylor Bears +16
Over 75 (-110)
Under 75 (-110)
Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com
Oklahoma vs. Baylor Pick:
Oklahoma is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Big 12 games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 5-2 in the Sooners’ last 7 games as a favorite and 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. The over is 7-1-1 in Baylor’s last 9 Big 12 games and 4-0 in their last 4 home games. OU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bears at Baylor, and the road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between the two teams. OU defeated Baylor on the road last season by a score of 53-24 to cover the 8 point line.
With both teams featuring playmakers galore on offense, even without Oklahoma’s two stars, this should be a high-scoring game. Griffin has proved that he can put points on the board against anyone including respected teams such as TCU, Kansas St. and Missouri, but the Bears cannot stop anyone on defense and that spells trouble against Landry Jones and company. Oklahoma has owned Baylor in their home stadium and proved it as recently as last season. Griffin struggled throwing the ball in that game, posting only 124 yards through the air with 2 INTs, so it will be hard to take the over at such a high number here. The Sooners should have a field day against the Bears ‘defense however, and that will allow them to cover the line in this one. Take OU and lay the points here.