Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Pick – NCAAF Week 6

The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns meet in their annual pilgrimage to the Cotton Bowl for the Red River Showdown. Fortunately this game hasn’t been moved to somewhere like AT&T Stadium.

The Cotton Bowl Game was moved from the Cotton Bowl Stadium to Jerry Jones’ AT&T Stadium in 2010, which was certainly unfortunate in my opinion. I’ve seen some articles incorrectly state this is at AT&T Stadium, so hopefully they don’t take it into existence for future games.

College football continues to evolve and change, but some things should be left untouched. There have been a lot of changes for the Longhorns over the last decade and not for the better. The Vince Young led Longhorns in 2005 are the last Texas team to win a National Championship for the school.

That game against USC will forever be etched into Longhorns lore. However, Texas hasn’t had much to celebrate over the last ten decades. Sam Ehlinger proclaimed that Texas was back after beating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl two years ago, but yeah, no. That was a disinterested Georgia team and Texas happened to be much more motivated.

Texas is going into the Red River Showdown with a record of 4-1. They have a 40-21 loss against Arkansas on the road four games back, but responded nicely with three wins in a row. Their most impressive win was a 70-35 blowout of Texas Tech on September 25.

Some people foresaw a lookahead spot on the road last week, but Texas did well at TCU for a 32-27 win. It was a gutsy win for the Longhorns with Oklahoma up on the docket next. They take on a Sooners team that hasn’t lived up to their expectations this season.

That goes for the whole team, not just Spencer Rattler. If you just blindly look at their record, all looks fine, but they’ve had some close calls. Oklahoma could easily have two losses going into the Red River Showdown. Head below for our free Oklahoma vs. Texas pick on October 9, 2021.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma -3.5 (-105) -160 Over 63.5 (-115)
Texas +3.5 (-115) +140 Under 63.5 (-105)
Team Data Oklahoma Texas
Overall Record 5-0 4-1
ATS Record 1-4-0 4-1-0
Points Per Game 38.4 43.8
Points Against Per Game 19 24
Passing Yards Per Game 278.4 204.2
Rushing Yards Per Game 156.2 268.8

Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction:

Oklahoma hasn’t gotten the production out of Spencer Rattler that they’ve been looking for this season. Most quarterbacks would be happy with 1,260 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions on 76.3% completions. However, Rattler and the Oklahoma offense is expected to do a lot more than they’ve been putting on this season.

Oklahoma fans were chanting for the backup quarterback during their 16-13 win over West Virginia two weeks ago, so that just about says it all what Sooners’ fans expect from their offense.

It was one of a few close calls for Oklahoma this season. They opened the season with a 40-35 win over the Tulane Green Wave.

That was much closer than Oklahoma was expecting out of the gates as a big favorite. The same goes for their 23-16 win over Nebraska, and 37-31 over Kansas State last week.

You could say that was a lookahead spot for the Sooners to Texas, but what about Nebraska and Tulane? They have no excuse for that sloppy work.

Oklahoma has averaged 433.4 yards allowed per game. That’s a mid-tier FBS offense, and note that the Sooners had a creampuff matchup against Western Carolina to skew those numbers. Subtract that 76-0 win and they aren’t looking too hot offensively.

There’s talent here, and maybe they put it together in the Red River Showdown, but they will have to deal with Casey Thompson who is gathering a lot of confidence going into Saturday.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends:


  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games versus Texas
  • 9-0 overall in their previous nine games versus the Big 12
  • 2-7 ATS in their previous nine games versus Texas


  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games
  • 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games versus Oklahoma
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games at a neutral site
  • 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games as an underdog at a neutral site

Texas’ QB Casey Thompson has passed for 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 71.1% completions. He’s also run for 115 yards and 3 touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry on the ground. Thompson was watching the Red River Showdown from the sideline the last two years, but finally gets an opportunity on Saturday.

The Longhorns have put up 472.8 yards and 43.8 points per game with Robinson at the controls. The real star of this offense is future NFL running back Bijan Robinson. The sophomore is breaking out this season with 652 yards and 7 touchdowns on 6.2 yards per carry.

He can also catch out of the backfield, with 167 receiving yards and 2 scores. Texas has had plenty of really good running backs come through Austin and Robinson looks like the next.

Oklahoma hasn’t had enough big play potential in their offense this season. Rattler is hitting his targets at better than 75% completions, but they’re not putting their foot on defenses.

Their defense has settled in after struggling versus Tulane, but the offense hasn’t had that killer instinct we’ve come to expect from the Sooners. Robinson is probably the best playmaker on the field in this matchup. This should be a close game with the points looking pretty valuable.


Oklahoma vs. Texas Pick