One of the most intriguing games of the 6th week of the 2012 college football season is a Big 12 match up featuring the 14th ranked Oklahoma Sooners (2-1) traveling to Lubbock, TX to take on the 24th ranked and undefeated Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0) in an afternoon (3:30pm ET) game. OU is 1-2 ATS this season, covering only against Florida A&M on a 55 point line in a 69-13 win. Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS this season, including their Big 12 opener last week, a 24-13 win at Iowa State to cover a 1 point line.
The Oklahoma offense is led by senior quarterback and 4-year starter Landry Jones (772 yards passing, 5 TDs, 2 INTs). The Sooners rank 29th nationally in scoring offense with 37.3 points per game and 25th in total offense with 491.7 yards per game. The OU defense ranks 20th nationally in scoring defense with 14.7 PPG allowed and 13th in total defense with 284 YPG allowed.
Texas Tech utilizes a spread-offense that features senior QB Seth Doege (1,189 yards passing, 15 TDs, 3 INTs) in his second year as a starter, and wide receiver Eric Ward (14 yards per catch, 4 TDs) among others. The Red Raiders have averaged 43.8 PPG (11th in the nation) and 547 YPG (8th nationally) on the year. The Tech defense has been the story so far this season for a team that traditionally has not been as strong on that side of the ball, ranking number 1 in total defense with 167.5 YPG allowed and 5th in scoring defense with 10.8 PPG allowed.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Oklahoma Sooners -5
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders +5
Over 57.5 (-110)
Under 57.5 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech Pick:
Oklahoma is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Big 12 games. Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf. The under is 5-0 in OU’s last 5 games overall, 4-1 in their last 5 Big 12 games and 4-0 in their last 4 games against winning teams. The over is 5-1 in Texas Tech’s last 6 October games and 7-2 in their last 9 games against winning teams. In head-to-head play, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Lubbock. The Red Raiders have won 3 of the last 5 meetings outright, including last season’s 41-38 win as a 29 point underdog in Norman.
These two teams have generally played very high-scoring games; particularly in recent years with one team going over 40 points in each of the last 4 meetings. With the Red Raiders improved defense and Oklahoma struggling since the end of last season on offense, against top-level completion in particular, the total is not the most attractive bet on the board here. Oklahoma has not looked impressive this season, getting handled at home by Kansas St. in their Big-12 opener, and looking sluggish against suspect competition in their two wins. Texas Tech has not faced a murders row of competition to this point, but the Red Raiders have handily beaten all of their opponents and greatly improved the defense for a team that ended 2011 with a 5 game losing streak. Their last win of 2011 was over a fading Oklahoma team, and the call here is that with an improved squad the Red Raiders will be able to handle OU again this season at home. Landry Jones is not the same player he was earlier in his career, and the OU offense will struggle in this game. Take the Red Raiders and the points at home.
PICK = Texas Tech +5