Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Pick – NCAAF Week 5

In the CBS feature game this Saturday we have what could be a thriller in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Ole Miss Rebels are packing up their bags and heading to Alabama for a game with big implications. Ole Miss is up to No. 11 in the country and would springboard much higher if they do the unthinkable in Tuscaloosa.

Along with the team ranking, the Heisman Trophy bid for quarterback Matt Corral would go up ten notches with a win. Corral is one of the front runners in the Heisman race, and would get a massive boost if he can lead the Rebels to a win over the Crimson Tide. I think this season is better than any other recent year for it to happen.

Alabama is a great team and could win the National Championship, but I’m not so convinced that they’re better than the team last season. The three centerpieces of their offense are all in the NFL. Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris were the meat and potatoes of Alabama, and while I know the Crimson Tide reload, the explosiveness hasn’t been there with this group yet.

The Crimson Tide stalled out two weeks ago in Gainesville after scoring 21 points in the 1st quarter. It looked like it was going to be a runaway blowout until Bryce Young couldn’t put together drives, allowing Florida to creep back into the game. They are fortunate that Florida missed an extra point, and then in the waning seconds a 2-point conversion.

In any event, Alabama has to be the No. 1 ranked team by default. Until they lose Georgia likely won’t leapfrog them regardless of how good the Bulldogs are. The Crimson Tide are perfect, but have played nobody other than Florida. Miami? Nah I’m not counting the 2-3 Hurricanes that just lost to Virginia at home a somebody.

Ole Miss is coming off a 61-21 blowout over Tulane two weeks ago. The schedule makers did them some favors and had their bye week right after the Tulane game. They’ve been preparing for nothing but Alabama over the last two weeks. The win was their third of the season, which also includes a 43-24 win over Louisville and 54-17 to Austin Peay. Head below for our free Ole Miss vs. Alabama pick for October 2, 2021.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Ole Miss +14.5 (-110) +450 Over 79.5 (-110)
Alabama -14.5 (-110) -600 Under 79.5 (-110)
Team Data Ole Miss Alabama
Overall Record 3-0 4-0
ATS Record 2-0-1 2-2-0
Away/Home Record 0-0 2-0
ATS Away/Home 0-0-0 1-1-0
Points Per Game 52.7 46.5
Points Against Per Game 20.7 17.5
Passing Yards Per Game 336.7 313.8
Rushing Yards Per Game 298.7 151.8

Ole Miss vs. Alabama Prediction:

Matt Corral and Bryce Young are both top contenders to win the Heisman. Young by default because he’s on Alabama and the pre-season contenders like Spencer Rattler haven’t done anything. His numbers look good with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception on 72.1% completions.

However, Young has padded his numbers against a bad Miami, Mercer, and Southern Mississippi. That’s not impressive to me. He was fine against Florida with 240 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it wasn’t because he was dropping dimes all game.

The Alabama athletes went and scored those touchdowns. He missed two or three passes that should have been completed. Mac Jones probably hits those for big plays. Young may very well come up big against tough competition later in the season, but he’s being hyped up a bit too much from what I’ve watched.

No, we may not get an answer this week either regarding Young. He should move the ball on Ole Miss. That being said, the Rebels’ defense looks considerably improved from the paper thin defense the past few years. Ole Miss has been running to the ball and playing aggressively. It might be enough to get some stops.


Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends:

Ole Miss

  • 3-0-1 ATS in their previous four games
  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog on the road
  • 6-0-1 ATS in their previous seven games versus a team with a winning record
  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four road games versus a team with a winning record
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games

Alabama

  • 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 games at Alabama
  • 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games in the SEC
  • 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 games as a favorite
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games in October
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record

It was evident from the get-go that this Ole Miss defense was going to be different. Lane Kiffin had his defense flying to the ball in the season opener versus Louisville. It’s carried over and Ole Miss has allowed just 20.7 points per game.

They’ve been solid against the pass, ranked 53rd in the FBS with 208.7 against per game. The same against the run, as the Rebels have conceded 136 rushing yards per game for 61th in the FBS. I’m not saying that Ole Miss is going to stop Alabama cold in this one. The Crimson Tide are going to score.

However, with their offense, it might just take a few stops to keep Ole Miss in the game. I think Corral is going to move the ball as well. He’s passed for 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 68.8% completions. His ability to run can’t be underestimated, as Corral has gained 158 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground.

Alabama has a good defense, but I don’t think it’s great. They’ve allowed 283.8 yards per game for 17th in the country. And again, Florida is the only impressive team they’ve played, and Emory Jones, not Anthony Richardson started that game. The Gators moved the ball, and when Alabama needed a big stop in the final minutes, they looked tired. This looks like too many points.

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Ole Miss vs. Alabama Pick
OLE MISS REBELS +14.5