Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats Pick – NCAAF Week 5

The Mississippi Rebels are on the road after failing to keep up with the Florida Gators last week. Lane Kiffin made his debut as the head coach of Ole Miss and was good and bad to take away from the game.

I don’t think anyone expected a win for the Rebels against the No. 3 Gators. Having said that, some life on defense for Ole Miss would have been nice. Kiffin has a long road ahead of him with this defense. Kiffin will have to repair the defense on the recruiting circuit.

They aren’t going to scare off any legitimate contender in the SEC with their current defense. It’s a mess and I’m sure that Kiffin is well aware of how bad the situation is right now. He inherited a bad defense, and being paid the big bucks to find a way to fix it.

Florida scored 51 points on the road in a 51-35 win. Kyle Trask went wild for 416 yards and 6 touchdowns. What Kentucky can’t do is watch that tape and feel overly confident about themselves, though. They’re going to see some bad defense on film. However, they have no reason to feel too high after scoring 13 points against the Auburn Tigers.

The good news for Ole Miss is that their offense was motoring against a good Florida defense. Offense hasn’t been a problem for the Rebels. Long before Kiffin arrived on campus, Ole Miss had a dangerous offense.

His main assignment after getting hired is doing something to address the defense for the future. It’s not going to happen overnight so patience is required.

While Kentucky struggled for the greater portion of their matchup against Auburn, they won’t have to deal with a defense anything close to that level on Saturday at home. This should be a spot for Terry Wilson Jr. to gain some confidence.

I don’t think he was too bad against Auburn, but he had a tough matchup in the Wildcats’ first game of the season. They’ll catch a break with their opponent on Saturday. Head below for our free Ole Miss vs. Kentucky pick for October 3, 2020 in NCAAF Week 5.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats NCAAF Week 5 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Ole Miss +7 (-110)
  • Kentucky -7 (-110)
Moneyline:

  • Ole Miss (+205)
  • Kentucky (-245)
Total:

  • Over 62 (-115)
  • Under 62 (-105)

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Ole Miss vs. Kentucky Prediction:

Ole Miss is a team of two very different dichotomies. Their offense is dangerous and can pile up some points, but it doesn’t mean much when the defense is going to give all of those points back.

The Rebels accumulated 613 yards against Florida in Week 1 of the SEC. That’s not easy to do at all against the Gators. There aren’t many teams not named Alabama who have made it look easy against a Florida defense.

Matt Corral was in good form with 395 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also rushed for 50 yards on 13 carries. Corral has some running ability, but John Rhys Plumlee is the one with the wheels. That said, Corral is a much more efficient passer than Plumlee.

While the Ole Miss offense was flying around against a quality defense, their own defense was shredded by the Gators. Ole Miss conceded 642 yards and 51 points at home. Now they’re on the road against a sneaky Kentucky team, who didn’t play too poorly versus Auburn.

They may have scored just 13 points, but I like what I saw from Terry Wilson Jr. Wilson Jr. passed for 239 yards with a touchdown and interception, along with 42 yards rushing on 13 attempts.

The Rebels were 120th against the pass in 2019, and it doesn’t seem like there are improvements from last year. Expect Wilson Jr. to have his way with this Ole Miss secondary. They should have success on the ground as well.

Kentucky got it done with Kavosiey Smoke. Smoke ran for 62 yards and a touchdown on just 7 carries for 8.9 yards per carry. Kentucky will also utilize Asim Rose and Chris Rodriguez in the backfield to attack this bad Rebels’ defense.

I initially looked at the 7 points on the Ole Miss and was ready to jump aboard. However, it’s begging for action and looks a bit trappy. If they had an average defense, then Ole Miss would be a much more attractive option with the points here. I can’t trust the defense, though I do trust them to score the football. I’m backing the OVER in Kentucky.

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The Bet
OVER 62
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.