Ole Miss Rebels vs. Tennessee Volunteers Pick – NCAAF Week 7

The Mississippi Rebels and Tennessee Volunteers are scheduled to meet under the lights at Neyland Stadium. This should be a good one, with an electric crowd likely ready to greet Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.

After years in the dumpster of the SEC, Tennessee has had some life recently. Tennessee is coming off a 62-24 win over Missouri, and 45-20 most recently against South Carolina last week.

They opened the season in disappointing fashion with a 41-34 loss against Pitt, but haven’t looked bad otherwise. Their only other loss was a 38-14 final at The Swamp on September 25.

Since the loss, Tennessee responded in good form with two wins. Yeah, this hasn’t been an amazing season for Tennessee compared to other rivals in the SEC, but like I said, there’s been life for a program that hasn’t had any for a while.

Beating Ole Miss at home on a Saturday night isn’t considered a marquee win, but it’d still be a big victory for a program that hasn’t had much time in the spotlight over the last several years.

A win in primetime over a formidable enough opponent like the Rebels could be a nice springboard after looking the part over the last two weeks. Quarterback Hendon Hooker has ignited the Volunteers.

Going into the season as the QB2 behind Joe Milton, Hooker can’t be benched now for Milton even if he’s healthy. Tough break for Milton who transferred to Tennessee from Michigan, only to suffer an injury and his teammate has been too hot to sit down.

Matt Corral isn’t going to the bench for anything but an injury. Corral and Malik Willis are currently battling hard to be the first quarterback in the draft off the board. I’d have Willis at No. 1 going to the Detroit Lions, though Corral probably quickly goes after him.

Ole Miss is coming off a thrilling 52-51 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks. That was some kind of showdown, with Ole Miss surviving a 2-point conversion attempt to earn a narrow win. It was a good response after a 42-21 loss against Alabama. In a tough environment in Knoxville, we’ll see which Ole Miss team shows up. Head below for our free Ole Miss vs. Tennessee pick on October 16, 2021.

Mississippi Rebels vs. Tennessee Volunteers Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Ole Miss Rebels -2.5 (-115) -140 Over 83 (-110)
Tennessee Volunteers +2.5 (-105) +120 Under 83 (-110)
Team Data Ole Miss Rebels Tennessee Volunteers
Overall Record 4-1 4-2
ATS Record 2-2-1 3-3-0
Away/Home Record 0-1 3-1
ATS Away/Home 0-1-0 2-2-0
Points Per Game 46.2 41.5
Points Against Per Game 31 21.5
Passing Yards Per Game 302 220.5
Rushing Yards Per Game 259.6 252.8

Ole Miss vs. Tennessee Prediction:

Buckle up because there are going to be fireworks in Knoxville on Saturday night. Two of the most prolific offenses in college football are meeting in this matchup. Matt Corral leads the Rebels into Knoxville with a Heisman on his mind.

The way I see it, Corral had to be better against Alabama to be a frontrunner at the moment, but he’s certainly in the discussion with his gaudy numbers. Corral has passed for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions on 69.2% completions.

He’s also been a threat to go on the ground. On 58 attempts, Corral has run for 255 yards and 8 touchdowns on 4.4 yards per carry. His effort has helped lead the Rebels to an average of 561.6 yards per game for second in the nation. Going into this one, Ole Miss has scored 46.2 points per game.

The one team to slow down Ole Miss was the inconsistent Alabama defense. The Rebels were held to no points in the first-half and only scored garbage points in the second. Corral finished with just 213 yards and 1 touchdown. Slowing down Ole Miss is possible, but it doesn’t come easy.

Mississippi Rebels vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Trends:

Ole Miss

  • 6-2-1 ATS in their previous nine games versus a team with a winning record
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning home record
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games versus the SEC
  • 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five games after a win
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games in October


  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games as an underdog
  • 2-7 ATS in their previous nine games versus a team with a winning record
  • 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 games as an underdog at Neyland Stadium
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games
  • UNDER is 9-3 in their previous 12 games at Neyland Stadium

Tennessee has shown something defensively recently. They’ve allowed 44 points in their previous two outings, with 24 against Missouri in a 62-24 win, and then 20 points in a 45-20 win last week. Connor Bazelak was held to 322 yards and 2 interceptions with no touchdowns.

The Vols’ defense stepped up last week as well with Luke Duty passing for 167 yards and no scores. Emory Jones three games back is the last quarterback to throw a touchdown against Tennessee. Corral is going to throw a touchdown in this one, but if Tennessee can get a few stops, that might be good enough. The Volunteers are 46th with 344.3 yards allowed per game

If Hendon Hooker plays how he has been recently, then the Vols are going to be in good hands at home. Hooker has been coming on and could be tough to stop in Knoxville. He has passed for 13 touchdowns and 1 interception on 69.6% completions. Hooker can also run, as he’s gained 282 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4.3 yards per play.

The Volunteers are up to 18th in the country with 473.3 yards per game, and seventh with 41.5 points scored per game. They should find room to move the ball against a defense allowing 432.2 yards and 31 points per game. Both are outside of the top-100 in the FBS. Look for Hooker and Velus Jones Jr. to come up big against this defense. Corral is getting lots of hype, but I think it’s Hooker that steals the show in this one.


Ole Miss vs. Tennessee Pick