Ole Miss vs. Alabama NCAAF Pick – Week 5

The Ole Miss Rebels and Alabama Crimson Tide meet for an SEC clash un Tuscaloosa. This is an annual battle between Ole Miss and Alabama, with their most recent affair an embarrassing 62-7 loss for the Rebels. That was the case the previous season as well, with Alabama torching Ole Miss by a score of 66-3. They had a close meeting in 2016, with Alabama ultimately winning 48-43.

So, when was the last time that the Rebels beat the Crimson Tide? It was only back in 2014 that it happened, so not as long ago as you think. Having said that, Alabama are 9-1 in their previous ten meetings against Ole Miss. Bo Wallace was the quarterback for Ole Miss in 2014. He didn’t make a career out of playing football, so it was a sizable upset. Johnny Manziel is the only guy who springs to mind, and maybe Trevor Knight and Kyler Murray, who have terrorized the Alabama defense.

A team that beats Alabama with defense alone hasn’t been easy to find in the last decade. Ole Miss is included in that discussion, though. That’s the only game we can speak of positively for the Rebels against Bama, though. Ole Miss had gunslinger Jordan Ta’amu the last two seasons and it didn’t matter.

Ta’amu was stymied by a dangerous Crimson Tide defense. As far as this season is concerned, Ole Miss enter with a record of 2-2 after falling to Cal last week. A botched job with seconds remaining in the game deprived Ole Miss from scoring a touchdowns and possible tying it up with a 2-point conversion. Cal ended up getting out of the afternoon with a 28-20 win.

The only two wins by Ole Miss have been against Arkansas and Southern Louisiana. And that Southern Louisiana game was close, with a final score of 40-29. The Rebels enter Saturday with uncertainty at quarterback, not what they needed this week with Alabama on tap. Starting QB, Matt Corral, appears to be questionable to play after suffering bruised ribs against Cal. Corral to begin with hasn’t been great this season, so it could get interesting Saturday. Head below for our free Ole Miss vs. Alabama pick.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAF Week 5 Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Ole Miss +38(-115)
  • Alabama -38(-105)

Total:

  • Over 61.5(-110)
  • Under 61.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Ole Miss vs. Alabama Pick:

Offense isn’t the only thing that is going to be a concern for Ole Miss this week. Not only is the quarterback situation dicey, but the Rebels must deal with a dynamic Alabama offense. Tua and Alabama cruised past Southern Mississippi by a score of 49-7 last week. Tua had a monster game, as he passed for 5 touchdowns and 293 yards. Backup, Mac Jones, entered the game for garbage time and threw an interception, so that was the only miscue by the Crimson Tide offense.

Alabama go into Saturday with an average of 550 yards per game for 9th in the FBS. That includes 50 points scored per game as well. It could be much more than that. Alabama could easily be 1st in offense, but they are pulling starters in the 4th quarter, so that impacts their final numbers. Leave Tua in the whole game last season and he likely wins the Heisman over Kyler Murray. But at Alabama, they’re about winning football games. Putting the backups in hasn’t made much of a difference. The offense may not look as great, but their defense still swallows offenses up.

I think we’re going to see Alabama swallowing up a lot of members of the Ole Miss offense Saturday. The Crimson Tide have allowed an average of 10.8 points per game. As was the case the last two meetings, expect Ole Miss to struggle to register points. Their offensive situation was a lot better the previous two years and they still only managed 10 points in total. Matt Corral hopes to play for Ole Miss. The freshman has passed for 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 59.6% completions.

If Corral can’t go, the job will belong to either John Rhys Plumlee or Grant Tisdale. Both are true freshmen with zero starting experience in college. This of course had to happen during Alabama week and a road start in Tuscaloosa. Even if Corral is healthy enough to play, he isn’t going to be 100% and must operate on the road against an explosive Alabama team. 38 is a lot of points, but I can’t see much changing from the last two meetings. A 52-10 win for Alabama looks about right and would be good for a Crimson Tide cover.

The Bet
ALABAMA -38
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.