Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Pick – NCAAF Week 13

The Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers renew their rivalry in the Civil War on Friday evening. Actually, scratch that, this game is no longer known as the Civil War. I’m still going to refer to it as the Civil War, but officially, that has been pulled. They’ve done this with a couple of other rivalries, notably the Red River Shootout is now the Red River Showdown.

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is also done for the Georgia-Florida rivalry. It’s not a huge deal to me, but it is going to take some time to get adjusted without calling them by their former names. Regardless of that, Oregon and Oregon State will be on the field tonight in Corvallis.

The Pac-12 has not been good this season. When I say not good, I’m talking about in comparison to other conferences. However, if we were playing a full season, perhaps there would have been enough time for other teams to screw up, while the Ducks maintained a perfect record. It’s really hard to gauge how good some of these schools in the Pac-12 are.

The Ducks are the only team in the conference ranked in the top-10. Oregon goes into Friday with a faint pulse with regard to getting into the CFP. Despite an undefeated record of 3-0, the Pac-12 doesn’t have enough runway to get a team into the playoff. Let’s assume they finish with a perfect record and win the Pac-12. It’s still going to be tough to get into the top-4.

Oregon has Oregon State, California, and Washington left on the schedule. They would be nice wins, no doubt, but not enough to jump over five other teams, I don’t think so. With that in mind, Oregon needs several other teams to fall over in front of them. It won’t be impossible, though the odds are long.

I would prefer a playoff system that includes the winner of Power Five conferences and a few wildcards to make it eight. That makes too much sense, so we’ll be waiting a long time for something like that to develop. How long were people calling for a playoff for? And when we finally got one, it was a four-team playoff.

Oregon State is far away from going to the playoffs, but they appear to be on the right path. They’ve shown improvement and that’s all you can really ask for with the Beavers. Instead of getting blown out every game like has typically been the case the last decade, they’ve been competitive at least.

Oregon State welcomes the Ducks to Corvallis with a record of 1-2. They had a win over Cal last week. and a loss against Washington State and Washington. The win over Cal was a good building block for this program. Head below for our free Oregon vs. Oregon State pick for November 27, 2020.

Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Pac-12 Football Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Oregon -13.5 (-110)
  • Oregon St. +13.5 (-110)
Moneyline:

  • Oregon -450
  • Oregon St. +360
Total:

  • Over 64 (-115)
  • Under 64 (-105)

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Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction:

Oregon State was a useless football team not that long ago. This game wasn’t much of a rivalry, and it’s still pretty lopsided, but as Oregon State gets better, we are going to have a series. Oregon State ended an eight-game losing streak against Oregon in 2016 with a 34-24 win. However, it was right back on the losing path, as the Ducks slammed the Beavers, 69-10, the following year.

The Ducks have won 55-15 and 24-10 in 2018 and 2019. Last season might have been a change to a more competitive rivalry. Even when Oregon State won in 2016, I wasn’t impressed with the Beavers that season. That was more so the Ducks beating themselves than Oregon State playing well.

Oregon State is 1-2, but I respect how they played in their two losses. Hanging in there with Washington State, 38-28, and Washington, 28-21, is a “win” for Oregon State. And then they were finally rewarded for their hard work last week versus Cal with a 31-27 win. Jermar Jefferson ran all over Washington for 196 yards and a touchdown on over 10 yards per carry.

Jefferson has recorded 449 yards and 5 touchdowns on 7.2 yards per carry. As a freshman, Jefferson was electric with 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. He missed time last year because of an injury, but still managed to carry the ball for 648 yards and 4.8 yards per carry. He’s seemed to take an additional step forward in 2020, and is putting himself on the map of several NFL teams.

Oregon State’s strength on offense should match up well against the Ducks’ biggest weakness. The Oregon defense has been far from good this season, especially against the run where they’ve conceded 181.3 rushing yards a game. With UCLA going to their backup quarterback last week, UCLA gained over 200 yards on the ground versus the Ducks.

Demetric Felton gashed Oregon for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry. I’m also going to give some credit to the Oregon State defense this season. Not a whole lot, but a little is in order considering where they’ve been the past few years. After Washington State scored 38 points, the Beavers settled in and gave up 27 points in back-to-back weeks.

The Beavers have been showing some fight, and in a rivalry game, that accounts for a lot. Even dating back to last season, Oregon State was showing life. They beat UCLA, 48-31, and came 3 points short of beating Stanford in a 31-28 game. I will take the points on Oregon State as home dogs.

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The Bet
OREGON STATE BEAVERS +13.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.