Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes Pick – Pac 12 Championship December 3, 2021

The Oregon Ducks and Utah Utes are at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Friday night for the Pac-12 Championship. If you thought that you just saw Oregon and Utah play, you aren’t mistaken. Oregon and Utah met in Salt Lake City on November 20.

It was all Utah through 4 quarters. They opened up a 28-0 lead, and put the game on cruise control in the second-half. A late punt return in the 2nd quarter put the Ducks to bed pretty early. At the time, Oregon was No. 3 in the country, going to see the No. 23 team in the FBS.

The public ate it up and backed Oregon as +3 underdogs. Hook, line, and sinker. I had Utah to win and cover, but didn’t expect to see the Utes doing it as easily as they did. Utah did it with a potent running game with Tavion Thomas gaining 94 yards and 3 touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry.

Utah had four runners gain at least 4.5 yards per carry against the Oregon defense. The Utes made sure that Kayvon Thibodeaux wasn’t going to make an impact. They ran the ball and didn’t put quarterback Camron Rising in tough positions.

Rising had only 18 attempts with 10 completions and 178 yards. The Utes need to duplicate that same effort. Don’t run the ball well this time? Thibodeaux is going to eat in the backfield if the Utes are forced into dropping back on too many series.

Oregon wasn’t able to get to Rising because Utah didn’t have to pass the ball. Is it going to be a carbon copy of that performance? The Utes are going to need to bring the same energy to Las Vegas with them. They had everyone on the right page.

The Utes are coming off a 28-13 win over the Colorado Buffaloes. They didn’t look the most interested and failed to cover 24 points. In any case, that was a game where Utah was in a sandwich spot between the win over Oregon and the Pac-12 Championship. The Ducks looked good in a 38-29 win in the Civil War against their rival Oregon State Beavers.

Oregon was in control of that game from the start, with the score indicating a closer game than it was. The Beavers had just 9 points going into the 4th quarter before scoring on an Oregon defense playing off the ball with a comfortable lead. Oregon State isn’t too bad this season, so it was a good win for Oregon.

Head below for our free Oregon vs. Utah pick on December 3, 2021.

Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Oregon Ducks +3 (-120) +115 Over 58 (-110)
Utah Utes -3 (+100) -135 Under 58 (-110)
Team Data Oregon Ducks Utah Utes
Overall Record 10-2 9-3
ATS Record 5-7-0 5-7-0
Away/Home Record NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
ATS Away/Home NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Points Per Game 33.2 35.3
Points Against Per Game 24.4 21.5
Passing Yards Per Game 221.2 216.1
Rushing Yards Per Game 213.3 218.3

Oregon vs. Utah Prediction:

Anthony Brown needs a big game against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship. He’s been good at times this season, including last week versus Oregon State. Brown had 275 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, along with 83 yards and a touchdown on 5.9 yards per carry.

Brown was tough to stop as a passer and runner. That’s the same guy that Oregon is going to need this time around versus Utah. He was fine two weeks back with 231 yards and a touchdown, but was held to 8 yards on 9 attempts as a runner.

The big trouble for Oregon in that one is that they got behind too early. They couldn’t stick to their game plan and hand the ball off to Travis Dye and Byron Cardwell. Brown had to air the ball out more than Oregon would have liked in that one.

In the rematch, expect the Oregon defense to make their presence felt earlier in the Pac-12 Championship. They will make adjustments and be better prepared this time. Cameron Rising will be forced into making plays with his arm on Friday night.


Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes Betting Trends:

Oregon

  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • 5-2 ATS in their seven games as an underdog
  • 10-2 overall in their previous 12 games
  • OVER is 4-2 in their previous six games
  • OVER is 4-2 in their previous six games versus the South Division

Utah

  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four neutral site games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite
  • 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games in Week 14
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games on a Friday
  • 16-7 ATS in their previous 23 games versus the Pac-12

This is a big game for Thibodeaux. Aidan Hutchinson of the Michigan Wolverines has been flying up draft boards and is No. 1 on some draft boards after he took the game over against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Thibodeaux has to react with a big effort to catch up to Hutchinson in the NFL draft race.

Oregon has been good against the run this season, but they failed to get much push. The Utah offensive line were the aggressors and blew the Ducks off the ball. Oregon is 25th in the FBS with 124.2 yards allowed per game against the run. It was an uncharacteristically bad performance at Utah.

I suspect that Oregon will make adjustments for the better, and the Utes won’t be able to run the ball so well in Las Vegas. Utah was running on adrenaline at home. They aren’t going to have the luxury of playing in Salt Lake City, though it is a short trip to Las Vegas.

The way I see it, this one comes down to the Utah quarterback. Rising needs to make plays in the secondary, which is something that wasn’t required in the first matchup two weeks back. Thibodeaux comes up big and won’t allow Utah to get out to a big lead. Thus, Oregon should be able to run their game plan on the ground this time.

I backed Utah to cover at home two weeks ago. It was one of my more confident selections of the year. The stars lined up for the Utes in Salt Lake City. Doing it twice in two games is going to be very tough, though. Oregon will adjust and patch up their mistakes.

The Ducks get home against Rising, while their ground game is allowed to get going in Vegas after not getting too far behind early. Following a big win behind Utah, I’m going to the other side in the Pac-12 Championship with a trip to the Rose Bowl up for grabs at Allegiant Stadium.

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Oregon vs. Utah Pick
OREGON DUCKS +3
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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