The consensus thinking is that this Saturday’s matchup (8pm EST) against Oregon St. is the last major test that Boise St. will face this season on their way to a potential BCS bowl game, and possible berth in the BCS National Championship game. The number 24 ranked Beavers travel to Boise to play the number three ranked Broncos on their famed blue turf field in one of the most anticipated games of the weekend. Coach Chris Petersen and Heisman-hopeful quarterback Kellen Moore, who threw for 39 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions last season, lead the Broncos, while Oregon St. is led by veteran head coach Mike Riley and running back Jacquizz Rodgers who rushed for over 1400 yards with 21 touchdowns a season ago.
The Beavers come in a 1-1 on the season, losing their opener to then- number 6 TCU 30-21. The Broncos topped TCU in last season’s Fiesta Bowl, and come in with a 16 game winning streak after opening with a pair of road wins, 33-30 win over Virginia Tech and a 51-6 demolition of Wyoming last week. Boise St. has won 56 straight games at home during the regular season, with their last loss coming to Washington State on Sept. 8, 2001. The Beavers defense has allowed 453 yards in each of their first two games, and will have to improve if they have any hope of pulling off a huge upset in Boise. With Sophomore Ryan Katz starting at quarterback for Oregon St., Rodgers, who ranked 11th in the nation in rushing last season, will have to come up big and allow the offense to control the clock to keep Moore and the high-powered Bronco offense off the field. Boise State’s top running back is Junior Doug Martin; while Moore’s top targets are Titus Young and Austin Pettis.
The trends in this one seem to favor the road team from Corvallis, Oregon St. comes in 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The over is 6-2 in Boise State’s last 8 games overall, and the under is 6-2 in their last 8 home games. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 Oregon State road games.
Oregon St. vs Boise St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Oregon St. Beavers +18.5
@ Boise St. Broncos -18.5
Oregon St. +625
Boise St. -850
Oregon St. vs Boise St. Prediction for Week 4 Saturday Evening Game:
Spread Prediction (Top Play) – Take Oregon St. on the road in this one. The Broncos should prevail, and the 56-game winning streak is unlikely to end here against an inconsistent Beaver team that had trouble stopping Louisville from throwing the ball last week and is led by a Sophomore QB in his first season as a starter. If Oregon St. gets behind early this could be a rout, but expect the Beavers to put some points up as well and at least keep it respectable. Seventeen points is simply too many points to give a quality team like Oregon St. in a big game that they will be very prepared for.
Over/Under Prediction – Take the under here, these teams can both put up points, there is no question about that, but with the trend favoring the under in the last 8 Boise St. home games and the last 10 Oregon St. road games the under is the smart play. Look for Boise St. coach Chris Petersen to take his foot off the gas in second half and keep the total down as the Broncos have the game in hand. Oregon St. will get a score or two late to keep Boise St. from covering, but it will not be enough to send the total over. Prediction – Under 56.5 points
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