The top PAC-12 game for week 11 of the 2011 college football season features the 7th ranked Oregon Ducks (8-1) traveling to Palo Alto, CA to take on the 3rd ranked Stanford Cardinal (9-0) in primetime (8:00pm ET) this Saturday. Oregon has won eight straight games since their season-opening 40-27 loss to top-ranked LSU, including last week’s 34-17 win at Washington when they failed to cover the 16.5 point line. Stanford rolled at Oregon St. last by a score of 38-13 to easily cover the 20.5 point line, and the Cardinal had a thrilling overtime win in a shootout at USC the week prior by a score of 56-48. Oregon is 8-1 ATS this season while Stanford is a sterling 9-0 ATS in 2011.
The Ducks possess one of the most explosive running games in the nation, ranking in the top 10 nationally in three major offensive categories including: rushing offense (5th) with 298.4 yards per game, total offense (7th) with 510.7 YPG and scoring offense (5th) with 46 points per game. Defensively the Ducks have not been as dominant as they were a season ago when they went to the BCS Title Game, ranking 26th in scoring defense with 20.8 PPG allowed and 61st in total defense with 383.8 YPG surrendered. Stanford of course is led on offense by the odds-on favorite for the Heisman Trophy; quarterback Andrew Luck (26 TDs, 5 INTs, 71.3% completion rate). The Cardinal ranks 3rd in scoring offense with an average of 48.2 PPG and 8th in total offense with 505.8 YPG. The Stanford defense has allowed 16.6 PPG (11th in the nation) and 324 YPG (18th in the nation).
Oregon vs. Stanford Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Oregon Ducks +3.5
@Stanford Cardinal -3.5
Over 67.5 (-110)
Under 67.5 (-110)
Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com <– best college football lines (easy credit card deposits + $900 bonus too)!
Oregon vs. Stanford Pick:
Oregon is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 PAC-12 games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Stanford is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record and 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The over is 8-2 in Oregon’s last 10 November games and 15-6 in their last 21 PAC-12 games. The over is 10-3 in the Cardinal’s last 13 games as a home favorite and 19-7 in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record. In head-to-head play, the over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between the two teams and the Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Oregon has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between the teams, including last season at home in a 52-31 rout when they easily beat the 6.5 point spread.
The key matchup in this game for the Cardinal is their run offense, which even with Luck is the strength of their offense, against the Oregon run defense. Stanford averages 224.7 YPG rushing (17th nationally) and Oregon has shown vulnerability against the run to the few strong offenses they have seen, namely Arizona St. (allowed 169 yards on the ground) and LSU, when they allowed the Tigers to run for 175 yards. Stanford will almost certainly need to run the ball effectively to keep Oregon’s fast-paced spread offense off the field and keep their defense from tiring out. Stanford has size and power on the offensive line and with their tight-ends that will allow them to wear down the Oregon front seven, which is smaller and less experienced than they were last year. Stanford pounded Oregon two years ago with Toby Gerhart running for 223 yards and 3 TDs, look for Stepfan Taylor (6.1 YPC) to be featured in a similar manner in this game. They were able to run for 5.7 YPC last year against Oregon but got away from the run somewhat because they tried to keep pace with the Duck’s offense. The same thing will not happen at home this year; Stanford will set the tone and pound the rock early against Oregon. They should eventually wear down the Ducks and cover the line. Take Stanford in this one.