Patriots Raiders Spread and Total Pick for Week 4

This one definitely looks familiar to the Patriots game last week against the Bills. You have one team that has been a powerhouse for the last decade, and another that is trying to get back to relevance. The Patriots squandered away a 21 point lead in the second half against the Bills, falling 34-31 off a last second field goal. The Raiders, to the Patriots delight, took care of the New York Jets in a back and forth showdown, which saw Jason Campbell easily pick apart the Jets defense, with Darren McFadden finding it easy to run with ease.

Tom Brady didn’t look like vintage Tom Brady at all in week 3. Ralph Wilson Stadium is a place where he usually has his way against the hapless Bills, but it was tough sledding on Sunday. Brady still managed to put up a whopping 387 yards, but several interceptions were the main reason for the collapse. The Patriots had a chance to pull away late in the game, but Brady threw a critical interception deep in Buffalo territory. In another instance, he threw a pick-6 just seconds after the Bills tied it up. To put things into perspective on just how bad his performance was, Brady threw four interceptions in this game, the same amount of all of last year. If the Patriots managed to take care of the ball, like they usually do, this should have been an easy victory. However, Brady is certainly not the only one to blame for this loss. The defense has looked less than average in the first three weeks, surrendering an average of 468.7 yards a game, which is dead last in the NFL. Most notably, the pass defense is atrocious, but they have been susceptible against the run as well.

The Jets usually don’t find themselves in many shootouts, but when it happens, it more than often does not favor well for them. Point in case against the Raiders, where they gave up 34 points. Perhaps like the Bills, the Raiders aren’t getting enough respect on the offensive side of the ball. In any case, the Raiders should get some props after pummeling an elite defense. They currently average 30.7 points a game, only about 4 points behind the New England Patriots. The Raiders offense is led by running back Darren McFadden, who leads the league in rushing with 131 YPG. Quarterback Jason Campbell has been more than serviceable; in fact, he’s rated among the top-10 statistically, so expect him to take advantage of a weak pass defense. On the defensive side of the ball, things have been pretty rough since the departure of Asomugha.

New England vs. Oakland Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

New England Patriots -4
@ Oakland Raiders

Game Total:

Over 54.5 (-110)
Under 54.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.com

Patriots vs Raiders Pick:

The New England Patriots are once again among the top offensive teams in the league. There’s no denying that they have too many weapons for a defense to hold down. Tight End Rob Gronkowski has been a beast across the middle, and Wes Welker is on pace for the best season of his career. If Chad Ochocinco gets his stuff together, this offense could rival the success they found in the 2007 season. The problem with the Patriots, though, is their horrendous defense. Even with several marquee players, they just aren’t getting it done. While their defense should surrender some points this Sunday, Tom Brady and company should make up for that. The last time these two teams met in 2008, the Patriots put up 49 points to rival the Raiders 26. I don’t foresee 49 points, but it could be close to 35-40. The Raiders should move the ball around without too much trouble at home against the worst defense statistically in the NFL. Expect a lot of points on Sunday, a 35-28 or so finish looks promising.

PICK = Over 54.5

Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.