Week 12 of the 2012 college football season features an exciting PAC-12 match up Saturday night (8:00pm ET) with the 13th ranked Stanford Cardinal (8-2) traveling to Eugene, OR to take on the 2nd ranked Oregon Ducks (10-0). Stanford has a 604 record ATS this season, and they have covered 4 of their last 5 games including a 27-23 win at home over Oregon State last week as a 3.5 point favorite. Oregon is also 6-4 ATS this season, and the Ducks are red-hot coming into this game after having covered their last 5 games including a 59-17 demolition of Cal last week as a 31 point favorite.
The Stanford offense ranks 63rd in the nation in scoring offense with 29.1 points per game on average and 84th in total offense with 377.8 yards per game. The Cardinal made a quarterback change last week against Oregon State, switching to dual-threat QB Kevin Hogan who threw for 3 TDs and 254 yards with 2 INTs, and also ran for 49 yards on 11 carries (4.45 YPC). Their 417 yards of total offense was an improvement over their average output. The Stanford defense ranks 12th among FBS teams in scoring with 17.2 PPG allowed and 17th in total defense with 320.7 YPG allowed.
Oregon has what is universally recognized as the most explosive offense in the country, and the Ducks rank 1st in scoring with 54.8 PPG and 3rd in total offense with 562.6 YPG. Quarterback Marcus Mariota (2,164 yards passing, 28 TDs, 5 INTs; 516 yards rushing, 3 TDs) and running back Kenjon Barner (1,360 yards rushing, 20TDs) have propelled the Ducks to 325.1 YPG on ground, good for 3rd best among all FBS teams. The Oregon defense ranks 32nd in scoring defense with 22.3 PPG allowed and 47th in total defense with 377.6 YPG allowed.
Stanford vs. Oregon Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Stanford Cardinal +20.5
@ Oregon Ducks -20.5
Over 65.5 (-110)
Under 65.5 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Stanford vs. Oregon Pick:
Stanford has a 6-1-1 record ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record, a 16-5-1 record ATS in their last 22 road games and a 15-5-1 record ATS in their last 21 PAC-12 games. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against winning teams, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 November games. The under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last 4 road games, 5-2 in their last 7 conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. The over is 13-3 in Oregon’s last 16 November games, 25-7-1 in their last 33 home games and 24-8 in their last 32 conference games. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and the over is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings.
The Ducks have steamrolled every one of their opponents this season, and have not been held under 43 points (43-21 over ASU on October 18th) in any game this season. They also have yet to face a defense that has been any better than the middle-of-the-pack, and in fact most have been much worse as their non-conference schedule was weak and the PAC-12 has fielded some truly awful defensive squads this season. Stanford is a notable exception this however, and the Cardinal should make a game of this despite being blown out by Oregon the last two seasons. Stanford has looked better on offense with a more mobile quarterback under center, and as a 20 point or greater underdog they are a good value pick here. Oregon has yet to be tested this season, the call here is that they will be tested on Saturday.
PICK = Stanford +20.5