Super Bowl Line for Over Under Betting and Pick

After months of anticipation, the crowning jewel of the football season is upon us: the Super Bowl. Ever since the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers were penciled in for the finals, the hype machine has been working overtime, building storylines, creating streams of gossip and generally putting the focus on seemingly everything but the actual football game. However, now we are quickly approaching kick-off, and it is time to figure out where the smart money is with respect to the over/under.

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Super Bowl Over Under Comparison

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OVER
UNDER
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44.5 (-105)
46 (-110)

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Note: This article was written earlier in the week. The line for this game is particularly interesting, because there are so many seemingly competing factors at play here. The first, most obvious factor to consider is the fact that these are essentially the two best defenses in the league. The Steelers have given up a meagre 14.5 points per game, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. Green Bay has allowed the second fewest, giving up an average of 15 points during the regular season. This would automatically suggest to many that the line should be low, even lower than it was for games like Pittsburgh vs New York Jets. However, one must also consider that the offenses in this game are no slouches either. Green Bay scores 24.3 points per game, a number that would probably be even higher had they not put up that 3 point spot against Detroit when Aaron Rodgers left early with a concussion. The Steelers are no strangers to scoring either, putting up a healthy 23.4 points per game. These numbers on their own suggest a relatively high scoring Super Bowl. Of course, the line has taken both these conflicting factors and settled on a healthy medium. Currently, most betting sites have the line sitting at 44.5, although there are also several at 44.

It is important to look at the movement of the line from when it originally opened to where it currently sits to get an idea of where the money is being put. The line opened at 46, so it has taken a fairly considerable drop since then. What this means is that large, respected groups have been betting the under, driving the line down further. However, according to several reports, oddsmakers are expecting the general public to heavily lean on the over, so it is likely that this number will slowly work its way back to the original posting of 46 by the time game time rolls around.

Going by the current number of 44.5, we must make our decision using sound logic rather than what we ‘hope’ happens. This is the reason that ‘sharps’ are mostly betting the under, while ‘squares’ are mostly putting their money on the over. After all, there aren’t too many casual football fans that watch the Super Bowl hoping that few points are scored. However, based on the tremendous strength of these two defenses, expect this one to be lower scoring than many may think, or hope. Yes, both offenses are capable of putting up big numbers, but scoring should be at a premium in this one. In the last 5 Super Bowls, the Under has hit 4 times, which gives somewhat of an indication that the pressure of the big game may influence the offense slightly more than the defense, since there is more of an individualistic focus on the offensive players. In Pittsburgh’s last 4 games as an underdog, the Under has hit every time. The Under is also 6-1 in Green Bay’s last 7 following a straight up win, and 8-3 after an ATS win. The number may also be artificially inflated because of the last time the two teams met, when the Steelers won a shootout 37-36. However, this game should definitely be considered an outlier rather than an indicator of what is to occur in this one. Even if the line stays at 44.5, the smart money is on the Under. If the line inches up any higher, so much the better.

Pick: Under 46 (-110)

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