Super Bowl XLIX Prop Bet Picks – February 1st

The Super Bowl is a game where everybody and their mother puts money down on it. It is the mecca of sports betting events. Whether it is a small 5 dollar wager, or a bet worth thousands of dollars, there is going be to be bets being laid down on Super Bowl XLIX.  If you currently don’t have an online betting account or want to take advantage of the Super Bowl bonuses going on right now check out Bovada.lv (or Bodog.eu if you’re Canadian).

Super Bowl XLIX features the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks, taking on the last team to win back-to-back Super Bowls, the New England Patriots. This Super Bowl will always be remembered for the controversy surrounding the Patriots and the infamous deflated football scandal. I am at the point where I just want to talk about football and don’t want to hear about deflated footballs ever again. That is certainly wishful thinking, we both know that it isn’t going to go away, not now and not anytime soon. I am in the business of winning money betting on sports. Everything else is academic to me, and deflate gate is something else the media can make money from. With that said, there are so many ways to win money betting on the Super Bowl. There are always the traditional ways of going about betting on the Super Bowl, which includes betting on the point-spread and over/under. However, with odds makers releasing so many other lines for Super Bowl XLIX, why limit yourself to just the point-spread and over/under?

In this particular Super Bowl write-up, I am going to tackle Super Bowl prop bets. The singular goal is to sift through all of the Super Bowl prop bets that are available at online sportsbooks and come up with my top 5 prop picks. These picks include player props and team props. There are so many different types of bets you can make, including the Half-Time Show, the coin-toss and so forth, but from a handicapping perspective, there are opportunities for edges to be found mainly on player and team prop picks. I suggest to maintain solid bankroll management while betting on the Super Bowl. There are temptations to go crazy with your bet size, but as a rule of thumb bet between 2%-5% of your sports betting bankroll on the Super Bowl. As always, you will be able to find my NHL picks at The Sports Geek.  Good luck with your Super Bowl XLIX bets on Sunday everybody and let’s win some cash.

Betting Odds Provided By Bovada.lv <- best American betting site

Super Bowl Prop Bet #1 – LeGarrette Blount rushing yards: O/U 61.5 yards

There are a few angles to look at this prop bet from. First, by looking at the New England Patriots and the running back position. The Patriots ended the season rushing for 95.5 yards per game, which made them 7th best in the NFL in rushing yardage. While Blount is a reason for why the Patriots have such a good ground game, it definitely isn’t the only reason why. In fact, the Pats have many reasons why they have a successful running game. It doesn’t begin and end with one running back, it is a team effort that is spearheaded by multiple solid running backs. Shane Vereen, Jonas Grey, Brandon Bolden, and Blount all share a bulk of the load. Blount went off for 148 yards against the Colts last week. He was the MVP of the game. However, Blount has had a great history against the Colts in his career. In the previous week against the Ravens, Blount received only 3 carries for 1 yard. On the season Blount rushed for more than 61 yards only four times. He went for an average of 34.2 points per game.

Another angle here is the Seahawks’ rush defense. A defense that allows only 81.5 yards on the ground, 3rd in the NFL. I think the Pats game-plan is going to be one that features plenty of short passes around the line of scrimmage. They aren’t going to air it out deep, the Seahawks secondary will shut that down as well as the running game. There are going to need to be a lot of things go right for Blount to get more than 61 yards. I think it would have to take a big run, but Blount isn’t going to out run this Seattle defense. I like the UNDER 61.5 yards on LeGarrette Blount.

PICK: BLOUNT UNDER 61.5 YARDS RUSHING (-120)

Super Bowl Prop Bet #2 – Michael Hoomanawanui receiving yards: O/U 6 yards

My last pick leads into my next couple of picks in a way. As I just alluded to, the Patriots are probably going to utilize quick short passes and avoid passing into the Seahawk secondary. When they do look deep, I suspect the Seahawks will have the Patriots’ receivers and Gronkowski on lock. That leaves some options underneath for Tom Brady. With the Seahawks’ coverage focusing on shutting down them, there are going to be short dump offs for Brady. Hoomanawanui is a Patriot tight end that should be able to catch at least one or two passes to push him OVER 6 yards. In the opening round against the Ravens he caught 4 balls for 43 yards. Against the Colts he played a much smaller role with only 6 yards. But that 6 yards here would be a PUSH. I suspect at a minimum he matches that again, but should end with around 20 yards in the Super Bowl. Note that the Seahawks were 3rd last in the NFL in allowing yards to tight ends. This is one bet that will have a chance to hit throughout the entire game. All it takes is one play to win this bet.

PICK: HOOMANAWANUI OVER 6 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Super Bowl Prop Bet #3 – Shane Vereen receiving yards: O/U 27.5 yards

This falls in line with the reasoning for my previous pick. I actually think running back Shane Vereen is going to have a big impact in this game. Not only does he line up in the backfield, but the Patriots do like to spread him out as a receiver as well. He isn’t a proto-typical running back, this guy has great hands. Just look at the 50 yard touchdown he had against the Jets earlier in the season. He also had a solid day of receiving against the Ravens and Colts. Against the Ravens Vereen caught 4 balls for 39 yards, and against the Colts he snagged 3 balls for 41 yards. Vereen is also a threat in the screen game out of the backfield, which could spur a 30 yard reception in that instance.

PICK: VEREEN OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

Super Bowl Prop Bet #4 – Marshawn Lynch carries: O/U 19 attempts

I think Russell Wilson is going to struggle in this game against an underrated Patriots’ secondary. Having no Tate or Harvin in this Super Bowl will be present. This should be the Marshawn Lynch show for the Seahawks in this game. I expect a heavy dose of him early and often. The Seahawks are 1st in the NFL in rushing yards with 172.6 yards per game. Lynch has been the subject of attention at media day for declaring why he is there. He made it pretty clear that his job as an NFL running back isn’t to talk to the media. Instead he is being paid to terrorize opposing defenses. Lynch has made a pretty good living out of it. The Seahawks should give him the ball at a rate that was pretty consistent in their last game against the Packers where he received 25 carries. This is the best offensive weapon the Seahawks have in the Super Bowl, you can put a bet on that they’re going to use him often in this game.

PICK: LYNCH OVER 19 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (-115)

Super Bowl Prop Bet #5 – Number of Seattle Seahawks to catch a pass: O/U 7 players

To make this prop bet pick I simply counted the amount of players on the Seahawks’ roster I see making a reception. What I count is 6 players making a catch. The Seahawks had 8 players make a catch last week, but note that one of those receptions was on a fake field goal to a special team’s player. Full back Will Tukuafu also had a catch for 1 yard. We can make the assumption in this game that the Seahawks aren’t going to pull any tricks like a fake field goal. Additionally, the reception by Tukuafu was only his second all season long. He finished the regular season with 1 reception for 2 yards. Consequently, the players with the greatest chance of catching a ball in the Super Bowl for the Seahawks are: Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Marshawn Lynch, Ricardo Lockette, Luke Willson, and Robert Turbin. Okay, let’s pretend the Hawks didn’t attempt a fake field goal last week. That would have left them with 7 receptions, the seventh to a player that caught only one ball all year. Against the Packers 6 receivers made a catch, one being the injured Paul Richardson who won’t be playing in the Super Bowl. Worst case scenario I see from this bet is a push on the UNDER receptions from 7 Seahawks.

PICK: SEAHAWKS TOTAL RECEPTIONS UNDER 7 PLAYERS (-125)

Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.