TCU vs. Oklahoma Pick – NCAAF Week 11

The Oklahoma Sooners have another monumental matchup this week, as they welcome the TCU Horned Frogs. Whether you’re watching the Notre Dame-Miami game, or TCU-Oklahoma, it should make for a good night. Every game is big from here on out, but Oklahoma do not get it easy, catching Oklahoma State and TCU back-to-back. The Sooners ran away from Oklahoma State, as they rang up the scoreboard for 62 points in a 62-52 win. Defense is optional in the Big-12 in most cases, and we watched two of the most elite offenses in all of college football light up the scoreboard. Oklahoma had to quickly put that game in the past, though. Not only was it a win in a rivalry game, it was a win that bolstered their portfolio for the college football playoff.

Oklahoma has a loss, so another would have punched their ticket out of the playoff. Oklahoma and TCU both have 1 loss, which came against the same team, Iowa State. Go figure, Iowa State have wins over Oklahoma and TCU, but own a record of 6-3 and are 21st in the nation. West Virginia learned their lesson from watching those two, and defeated the Cyclones last week. Now, we have 8-1 Oklahoma and TCU hoping that it’s going to be an insignificant loss at the end of the year.

Baker Mayfield did what Baker Mayfield does last week against an anemic Oklahoma State secondary. Mayfield will light the field on fire vs bad defensive units. He throws accurate darts all over the field. My problem with Mayfield, especially at the next level in the NFL, is his ability to breakdown and read elite defenses. He can sling it around with the best of them, but in the NFL, he isn’t going to have wide receivers running wide open by 10 yards too often. Mayfield and Oklahoma are going against a rare solid defense in the Big-12. The Sooners had options running free all over the place for Mayfield to hit. It shouldn’t be that easy against the Horned Frogs on Saturday night. Head below for our free TCU vs. Oklahoma pick.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Odds:

Spread:
TCU +6.5(-110)
vs. Oklahoma -6.5(-110)

Total:
Over 61.5(-110)
Under 61.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

TCU vs. Oklahoma Pick:

Mayfield has been the most accurate passer in the country this season. He’s completing 71.7% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Also, Mayfield has scampered for 5 touchdowns on the ground. Like I said, he has a laser guided arm, but that laser doesn’t work well if you’re not reading the other side correctly. The college football bowl committee will be watching this game closely, as well as NFL scouts. They’re going to want to see how he handles a good defense in a pressure game.

The Horned Frogs are 6th overall, allowing just 284 yards per game. Who is the best in the nation at stopping the run? Alabama? Nope, that honor belongs to TCU, who are giving up just 69.7 yards a game. Oklahoma does like to look to the run to set up the pass. Rodney Anderson has taken over in the backfield, with a 6.1 average on 521 yards.

This isn’t the same rushing game with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, though. If the TCU defense can take away the running game, which they’ve done against everyone this year, it’s going to put Oklahoma and the passing game in a tough position. Mayfield will be forced to complete tight passes. The Horned Frogs are allowing just 13.9 points per game.

Kenny Hill has had an up and down career, beginning at Texas A&M his first two years, and then TCU the past two. Hill’s best year passing the football came in 2014 as an Aggie, where he threw for 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. However, at TCU he became a much better runner. In his first-year, he ran for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns. Hill enters with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

TCU may not have the offense of Oklahoma, but they do have the privilege of going up against a horrible defense. The Sooners are 86th in the FBS, allowing 413 yards per game. They’re particularly anemic against the pass, where they’re giving up 262.8 yards per game. This should be the difference between a blowout and a close game. The Sooners haven’t played a defense of TCU’s defense, too. Add in the fact that Oklahoma are coming off an emotional win over their in-state rival, and it should make for a close contest. This is a must-watch contest on Saturday night. I’d go with the points.

PICK: TCU +6.5 (-110)

Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.