Texas Tech vs. Baylor Pick – NCAAF Week 11

If the Baylor Bears had one wish, it’d be for this season to end. They got a win last week, but it was their first of the year to advance to 1-8. Further, it was against one of the worst FBS programs in college football. If you want to call Kansas an FBS program, that is. The Jayhawks have been at the bottom of college football ever since around 2008 when they won the Orange Bowl. If you were to tell anyone who just started following college football, within the last five or so years, that Kansas won a top-tier bowl game, they’d think your nuts. Mark Mangino was fired because of the way he dealt with players on a personal level, and Kansas have been trying to field a competitive team ever since then.

Baylor got by the Jayhawks easily, earning a 38-9 victory. Kansas made their defense look competent, which they haven’t been able to showcase this year. Baylor must switch gears, as they welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to campus on Saturday. This could be a good win for Baylor this season, after such disastrous results thus far.

Their best game of the year came against a very good in-conference team, the Oklahoma Sooners. They battled and kept it competitive, but ultimately dropped a 49-41 decision to the Sooners. Additionally, they lost by a couple of points to West Virginia, 38-36. They beat Kansas, but those losses at the end of the day, look better than a win. It’s not like that win is going to get them to a bowl game or anything. Everybody beats up on Kansas, not everyone can keep it close against Oklahoma and West Virginia.

So, if you can keep it close against the Sooners and Mountaineers, there is the possibility that you can beat Texas Tech at home. What happened there is that Oklahoma and WVU took Baylor lightly, if the Red Raiders do the same it’ll be a loss. Conversely, if Baylor is content with their win from last week, it’ll be a blowout in favor of Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders offense is capable of ringing up the points against bad defenses. We see capable defenses nullifying them, but the weaker defenses are having a difficult time keeping up with the fast pace. Nic Shimonek has been looking good with 26 touchdowns and interceptions and just shy of 70% in completions. In the last two weeks, he’s piled up 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. The Bears’ defense better be ready to go under the roof at AT&T Stadium. Head below for our free Texas Tech vs. Baylor pick.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds:

Spread:
Texas Tech –7.5(-110)
vs. Baylor +7.5(-110)

Total:
Over 70(-110)
Under 70(-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Pick:

It’s a lost season for Baylor, but they are in the process of trying to find a quarterback of the future. Jarrett Stidham transferring to Auburn really hurt, and they’ve been seeking a new signal-caller since. You can’t blame Stidham leaving after the Art Briles scandal unfolded. Poor play from Zach Smith is opening the door for freshman Charlie Brewer. Smith and Brewer shared snaps for a bit there, but Brewer is emerging as the clear starter at Baylor. In his last three appearances, he’s passed for 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Brewer kept Baylor in that one with 2 touchdown passes, as they came up just short by a score of 38-36.

West Virginia does not have the best of pass defenses, nor does Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 122nd in the nation, allowing 287 yards per game. I don’t trust Brewer and the Baylor offense against a strong defense, we seen that against Texas two weeks ago. However, they’ve shown they can move the ball on bad defensive units. Brewer should be in for a nice game against the Texas Tech defense at home. Texas Tech are also allowing 34.1 points per game for 106th in the FBS. This is one of those games where Baylor should be able to touch over 35 points.

The Baylor defense is hard to trust, though. The only time they’ve looked decent was against Kansas last week, and then on September 9th against UTSA. In every other game, including a matchup against Liberty, Baylor surrendered more than 30 points, average of 42.7 points per game. The Bears are giving up 479 yards per game for 122nd. Texas Tech are 9th in the country, overall on offense. I don’t see how we don’t get at least 75 points in this game. Shimonek and Brewer should be in for big games. The Big-12 seems allergic to playing defense, and that should be the case this afternoon at AT&T Stadium.

PICK: OVER 70 (-110)

Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.