Texas Tech vs. TCU NCAAF Pick – Week 7

An all-Texas matchup tonight, as the Texas Tech Red Raiders depart from Lubbock to Forth Worth where they’ll have a Thursday night Big-12 matchup with the TCU Horned Frogs. Texas Tech and TCU have both gotten off to 3-2 starts in 2018. A winning season and a decent bowl game would be a major success for the Red Raiders. They at least have a little defense to help them get there, something Patrick Mahomes had to play without. It was Mahomes and the offense, and a pylon defense that would allow 40+ points every week.

There were some instances where 55 points wasn’t good enough for Tech. Put a good defense on the field with that team and they would have been some kind of force. Kliff Kingsbury has addressed the defence since then, but a little defense still isn’t enough to make them a national contender. Also, the offense is good, but this isn’t the Mahomes’ offense. So, only if everything would have come together at the same time for Kingsbury.

They just need three more wins to earn a bowl bid. Texas Tech went to the Birmingham Bowl with a record of 6-6 last season and ultimately fell to the South Florida Bulls by a score of 38-34. Their biggest win of the year was the regular season finale with a win over the Texas Longhorns. They fell to TCU, 27-3, last season in Lubbock. The Horned Frogs were the 11th ranked team in the nation at the time, so they were looking much stronger then.

There are some questions at quarterback for both teams going into this contest. Starting TCU QB, Shawn Robinson, banged up his shoulder in recent action, but is going to get the start for the Horned Frogs. He will be examined closely to see if his shoulder starts to impact his game, though. Michael Collins would get the nod if Robinson begins to degrade on the field.

He’s thrown for 105 yards and a touchdown in limited action this season. Meanwhile, Texas Tech will be watching their starting quarterback, Alan Bowman. He suffered a partially collapsed lung against West Virginia, but will start, though being monitored closely. Jett Duffey is being Bowman on the depth chart. He’s thrown for a touchdown with 3 interceptions thus far. Duffey has rushed for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns, so he is the more mobile option for the Red Raiders, albeit has struggled in the passing attack. Head below for our free Texas Tech vs. TCU pick.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAAF Betting Odds:

Texas Tech +7(-115)
vs. TCU -7(-105)

Over 61(-110)
Under 61(-110)

Betting odds provided by Sportsbetting.ag

Texas Tech vs. TCU Pick:

Texas Tech leads the conference with 48.4 points per game. They’re a sliver ahead of the Oklahoma Sooners by 0.4 points. The Red Raiders’ numbers are padded thanks to a 77-0 effort against Lamar and a 63-49 final against Houston. They fell by a score of 42-34 at home against a good West Virginia offense. TCU will be the best defense has faced this season.

The spread offense works wonders against slow defenses who can’t keep up. Against better defenses, it’s typically not as easy with athletes on defense. The Horned Frogs are 1st in the Big-12 with 303.6 yards allowed per game. They’ve been best at defending the pass, allowing an average of 178 yards per game, and that is with Ohio State on their schedule.

Conversely, the Red Raiders rank at the bottom of nearly every defensive category in the Big-12. They are giving up 447.6 yards per game. The next closest is Kansas State with 422 yards per game. That puts Texas Tech in 108th defensively in the nation. Their struggles in the air have been well documented, as they are 122nd in the country with 301.2 yards allowed per game. A massive edge has to go to TCU in the defensive department. While Texas Tech has a high-powered attack on offense, the Horned Frogs have a defense that can at least slow them down in spots.

The Red Raiders should be able to score, but expect them to face the most resistance they’ve faced in 2018. And I don’t know how well a partially collapsed lung is going to work in this quick tempo offense that Texas Tech has. If it doesn’t go smoothly for Bowman, Texas Tech will have to go with a quarterback who has minimal experience, against the best defense in the conference. TCU should also be able to take advantage of a thin Texas Tech defense. Give me the home team with the much better defense.

The Bet
TCU -7
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.