Texas vs. Kansas St. Spread Pick – CFB Week 14

Week 14 of the 2012 college football season continues on the first Saturday(8:00pm ET) in December with Big-12 action featuring the 18th ranked Texas Longhorns (8-3) traveling to Manhattan, KN to take on the 6th ranked Kansas State Wildcats (10-1) who will try to lock down the Big 12 Championship and the automatic BCS Bowl Game bid that comes with it. The Wildcats, who are 8-2-1 ATS this season, had their national championship hopes extinguished in their last game two weeks ago; a 52-24 shellacking at Baylor in a game in which they were favored by 12.5 points. This game is a chance to save face against a much-improved Texas team that is  5-6 ATS this season but has been able to eek out wins when they need to.

The Texas offense ranks 20th among FBS teams with 37. 2 points per game and 33rd in total offense with 443.5 yards per game. Quarterback David Ash, who is questionable for Saturday’s game with a rib injury, has thrown for 2,458 yards and 17 TDs with 7 INTs. If Ash is unable to play, Case McCoy, brother of former Longhorn star Colt who was 11 for 17 for 110 yards in relief of an injured Ash in the 20-13 loss to TCU on Thanksgiving Day, will suit up. The Longhorn defense ranks 65th in the country with 28.3 PPG allowed and 80th in total defense with 417.7 YPG allowed. Texas has allowed an average of 49.7 points to the top three offenses in  the conference – Oklahoma St., Baylor and Oklahoma.

Kansas St. has averaged 40.5 PPG to rank 11th among all FBS teams and 415.7 YPG to rank 55th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Collin Klein (2,306 yards passing, 14 TDs, 6 INTs; 787 yards rushing, 20 TDs) likely saw his Heisman Trophy hopes dashed with the Baylor loss, but remains one of the most productive players in the country. The Wildcat defense ranks 22nd among FBS teams with 20.8 PPG allowed and 40th in the country in total defense with 371 YPG allowed.

Texas vs. Kansas St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Texas Longhorns +10.5
@ Kansas St. Wildcats -10.5

Game Total:

Over 62.5 (-110)
Under 62.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Texas vs. Kansas St. Pick:

Texas has a 2-5 record ATS in their last 7 Big 12 games, a 2-5 record ATS in their last 7 games overall and a 2-5 record ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. The Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games against winning teams, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Texas’ last 4 games overall, 4-0 in their last 4 Big 12 games and 7-2-1 in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The over is 46-22 in the Wildcats last 68 Big 12 games, 22-10 in their last 32 games overall and 24-9 in their last 33 games on field turf. In head-to-head play, the road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings, and the Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The trends in terms of the over/under are a mixed bag with the Longhorns primarily coming in under, and the Wildcats generally coming in over; which makes playing either side in this game an iffy proposition. This could very easily be a very one-sided game, or a shoot-out where the last team with the ball wins. The team with the most to play for and the more healthy roster is Kansas St., and the Wildcats should bounce back from their worst performance of the year after having more than two weeks to stew over the Baylor loss. K-State has the type of explosive offense that Texas has not been able to slow down in their games with Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.; and when the Longhorns’ quarterback woes are factored in the Wildcats become an overwhelming favorite. Take Kansas State and give the points in this game.

PICK = Kansas State -10.5