Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Over/Under Pick – CFB Week 12

Week 12 of the 2012 college football season starts with Wednesday night (9:00pm ET) Mid-American Conference action featuring the Toledo Rockets (8-2) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (9-1) from Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, IL. Toledo is 6-4 ATS this season, and the Rockets have failed to cover in three of their last four games including a 34-27 loss to Ball State last week as a 6 point favorite. NIU is 8-1-1 ATS this season, and currently has a six-game streak of covering including a 63-0 pasting of UMass in their last game on November 3rd.

The Toledo offense ranks 37th out of the 120 FBS teams in scoring offense with 33.6 points per game and 29th in total offense with 461.8 yards per game. Quarterback Terrance Owens is a dual-threat with 2,416 yards passing and 14 TDs through the air, and 330 yards rushing and 4 TDs on the ground. The Toledo defense ranks 64th in scoring defense with 27.4 PPG allowed, but the Rockets have given up yardage in bunches, ranking 106th in total defense with 463.1 YPG allowed.

Northern Illinois has one of the most explosive offensive players in the country running their offense in dual threat quarterback Jordan Lynch. Lynch, who has passed for over 2,100 yards and 19 touchdowns while running over over 1,300 yards and 16 touchdowns, is one of the most exciting players in the country and has led the Huskies to 40.6 PPG (9th among FBS teams) and 478 YPG of total offense (20th among FBS teams). The NIU defense ranks 15th in the nation in points allowed with 17.9 PPG and 45th in total defense with 375.6 YPG allowed.

Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Spread, Line and Betting Odds:


Toledo Rockets +10.5
@ Northern Illinois Huskies -10.5

Game Total:

Over 63.5 (-110)
Under 63.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from

Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Pick:

Toledo has a 2-5 record ATS in their last 7 games against winning teams, and the Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. NIU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 MAC games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. The under is 5-2 in Toledo’s last 7 games overall and 5-2 in their last 7 games on field turf. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 games against winning teams. The over is 8-2 in NIU’s last 10 November games, 3-1-1in their last 5 November games; while the under is 6-2 in their last 8 games in DeKalb. In head-to-head play, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, the underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings and Toledo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

The Huskies have been on a major roll behind the play of their quarterback Lynch and an outstanding defense that has allowed 10 points or less in three of their last four games. The Huskies have hung 65 and 63 points on the Rockets in their last two meetings, and they have only played one close game all season long. Toledo allowed 446 total yards and 5 yards per carry to Ball State last week, and over 500 yards of total offense to NIU in each of the last two meetings. Lynch is likely to have another big game and Owens is a very explosive player as well; with these two teams combining for some very high scoring games in recent years the play to make here is the over. NIU has put up 63 points or more by themselves in the last two meetings, the over is a solid play here.

PICK = Over 63.5