Toledo vs. Western Michigan NCAAF Pick – Week 9

A college football season wouldn’t be complete with some midweek MACtion. The Toledo Rockets will travel to Kalamazoo for a meeting with the Western Michigan Broncos. Toledo are stuck in a bit of a down season, as they have found out life isn’t as easy without Logan Woodside at quarterback. Woodside moved on to the NFL, where he was cut by the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans in September.

He’s had trouble clinging on to an NFL roster, but he was as prolific as they come in the MAC. Woodside threw for 73 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in his final two seasons. It’s not every season you can just go to the bench and find a guy to replace that kind of production. Especially for a program like Toledo, who isn’t going to attract top-flight quarterback prospects continually. They typically take a year or two to develop a new QB.

Mitchell Guadagni is that guy for the Rockets. He has certainly shown some ability in his first-year that will likely carryover into next season. Guadagni isn’t zinging the ball around like Woodside yet, but he is protecting the ball well and limiting turnovers. For a quarterback seeing the field in his first-year as a starter, that’s what you want to see as a team. When they begin to open things up for him next season, that’s when we should see Toledo start to put up numbers again.

As it is now, the Rockets have found it difficult to outmatch the competition. There is only one game that they’ve outgained the other team. That came against the Virginia Military Institute in Week 1. They’ve gone six games in a row where they’ve been outgained by an average of 108.8 yards per game.

That’s generally not what you expect to find from a Toledo football team. Toledo have been to a bowl game every year since 2014 and might be in danger of missing out if they don’t get it going. They’ve lost to Appalachian State the last two years in the postseason. With only two wins against FBS competition, a victory over the Broncos could give them a lift. Head below for our free Toledo vs. Western Michigan pick.

Toledo Rockets vs. Western Michigan Broncos NCAAF Betting Odds:

Toledo +6.5(-105)
vs. Western Michigan -6.5(-115)

Over 68(-110)
Under 68(-110)

Betting odds provided by

Toledo vs. Western Michigan Pick:

Last week went in the wrong direction for Toledo right from the get-go. Guadagni threw an interception against Buffalo in his first pass attempt against Buffalo. That can’t happen against a good team like Buffalo, who are currently leading the MAC with just one loss on their resume. The Rockets ultimately fell, 31-17, at the Glass Bowl in Toledo.

Tyree Jackson has emerged as the best QB in the MAC, but Jon Wassink of Western Michigan might have something to say about that. Wassink has emerged as a threat for the Broncos and is the catalyst of the offense. He threw 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions last season, and has already surpassed 14 touchdowns with 16 in 2018. Wassink also has 6 scores on the ground rushing, up from 3 last season.

He’s led Western Michigan to some impressive offensive numbers. However, it hasn’t been all Wassink, the Broncos have gotten nice production from the ground attack. LeVante Bellamy has paced Western Michigan with 821 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. The senior is averaging 6.7 yards a pop, and will get to feast on a bad Toledo defense on Thursday evening. Overall, Western Michigan are 24th in the nation with 467 yards per game.

At home look for Wassink and company to take advantage of a Toledo defense that have had issues getting off the field. The Rockets are allowing 455 yards per game for 113th in the country. Pretty well every good offense they’ve played have gashed them, so I’m not sure why we should think anything is going to change in that regard in Kalamazoo. Don’t expect Gaudagni to be able to keep up with the terrible defense that he has to back him up. I took this line earlier in the week when it was at 5, but I still like Western Michigan at -6.5.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.