The Granddaddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA will feature the number 4-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) of the Big 10 taking on a newcomer to the game the number 3- ranked and undefeated TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) led by Coach Gary Patterson out of the Mountain West Conference this Saturday (5:00 pm EDT) . Wisconsin comes into the game with a 7-game winning streak, the Badgers suffering their only loss to Michigan State on October 2 34-24 at MSU.
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Wisconsin as usual features a run-oriented offensive attack with three running backs who have accumulated almost 2,900 rushing yards between them for a ground game that ranks number 12 in the nation with an average of 248.8 yards per game. James White with 1,029 yards, John Clay with 936 and Montee Ball with 864, run behind six All-Big 10 offensive lineman all over 312 lbs., and have propelled the Badger offense to an average of 43.5 points per game, 5th best in the nation. Defensively Wisconsin allows 20.5 points per contest and has limited opposing offenses to 320.3 YPG ranking 21st in the country in that category.
TCU boasts the top defense in the nation in points allowed with 11.4 per game, total yards with 215.4 per game and passing yards allowed with 126.2 per game. The Horned Frogs emphasize speed on defense, and are led by linebacker Tanner Brock with 97 tackles, safety Colin Jones with 10.5 tackles for loss and end Wayne Daniels with 6.5 sacks. Offensively TCU averages 490.8 YPG and 43.4 PPG, the 10th and 4th best totals in the nation with quarterback Andy Dalton manning the controls. Dalton a senior who has won 41 games in his career as a starter, has thrown for over 2,600 yards with 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The running game out of the spread –option attack averages 260.5 YPG, 8th in the nation with Dalton (407 yards), Ed Wesley (1,065 yards) and Matthew Tucker (694 yards) the primary ball carriers.
The Badgers are 4-0 ATS when playing a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. The under is 12-5-1 in TCU’s last 18 games when playing a team with a winning record and 6-0-1 in their last 7 bowl games. The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last 8 games on grass and7-1- in their last 9 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Badgers’ last 5 neutral site games. Wisconsin has won its last three Rose Bowl appearances.
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Wisconsin vs. TCU Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Wisconsin Badgers +3
@ TCU Horned Frogs -3
Over: 58.5 (110)
Under: 58.5 (110)
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Wisconsin vs. TCU Prediction for Rose Bowl:
Spread Prediction (Top Play) – Wisconsin is the more physical team and the Badgers have played a tougher schedule by far than TCU this season. This is not a typical, plodding Wisconsin team, these Badgers can score in bunches, winning by an average of 26.1 points during their seven-game winning streak. Expect Wisconsin to be very physical against an undersized TCU defense, and to use their strength to their advantage. Both teams are very experienced and their key players have been on the big stage before, with TCU playing in the Fiesta Bowl last season. The edge goes to Wisconsin based on their superior performance against a very rugged Big 10 schedule this season.
Over/Under Prediction – Both teams run the ball effectively and play tough run defense, so the 40+ point per game numbers that the offenses have been putting up should come to a halt here. Defense usually trumps offense in big games, and TCU will not find the going as easy on offense against the Badgers as they did in the Mountain West. Most of the action will be on the ground, and the point totals should be well under the average for both teams.