Atlanta Braves Defied the Betting Odds to Win 2021 World Series

Atlanta Braves World Series 2021

  • The Atlanta Braves defeated the Houston Astros 7-0 in Game 6 of the World Series to win their first championship since 1995.
  • Atlanta opened the season with +1000 odds and went as high as a +5000 after Ronald Acuna was injured.
  • Jorge Soler took home World Series MVP honors after opening with a +3500 odds to win the award.

The Atlanta Braves won their first World Series since 1995 and did it in historic fashion, winning the title in their 100th postseason win as a franchise. But more than history, the story of the Braves’ World Series win is that of the underdog.

Atlanta’s season was dealt a big blow when superstar Ronald Acuna suffered an ACL tear on July 11th. Three months ago, they were two games under the .500 mark and in third place in the NL East and with the 9th best record in the Conference.

Atlanta was one game behind the .500 mark at the All-Star break and didn’t have a winning record until August 6th, which meant they were a losing team for almost two-thirds of the season. But Atlanta was brave enough to battle through its storms. On Wednesday morning, we woke up with the Braves as the 2021 World Series champions.

Braves Were as High as +5000 During the Season

Atlanta opened the season with a +1000 odds to win the World Series. But they dropped to a +4000 when Ronald Acuna suffered an ACL tear. The Braves went as long as a +5000 during the season and were a +1200 after winning the NL East. Those odds shortened to +525 at the start of the NLCS and +125 at the start of the World Series.

After winning Game 1, the Braves finally saw the minus money sign next to their name at -155 but after the Astros struck back in Game 2, the odds swung back to Houston’s favor and Atlanta was back with the plus money sign at +115. The Braves took the crucial Game 3 and went back as the favorites at –165. They broke through with a 3-1 lead and saw their shortest odds of the season at -500. When the Astros cut the lead to 3-2, the Braves dropped back to -225.

In Game 6, the Astros opened as a -120 to tie the series and shortened to -135 right before the game. According to BetMGM, Houston had 64% of the betting handle at the Moneyline and owned 62% of the tickets and 56% of the money at -1.5 runs. The Caesars Sportsbook also reported that Houston took 56% of the dollars at the Moneyline. At BetOnline, 58% of the bets at the Moneyline were wagered on Houston and 69% of the wagers were on the Astros at -1.5 runs. But not even the odds, betting trends, the rally nuns, or Mattress Mack could stop Soler Power in Game 6.

Soler Power

Jorge Soler delivered the killer blow to the Astros’ comeback bid when he shattered a scoreless tie with a monster three-run home run in the third inning. Soler’s shot traveled an estimated 446 feet from home plate, landed on an awning outside Minute Maid Park, rolled off to the right, and fell to the ground inside a fencing that closed off the stadium from the neighborhood. Soler power indeed and the Astros never recovered.

Soler also hit a leadoff home run to open the World Series and another solo shot in Game 4 that gave the Braves the winning run for a 3-1 series lead. With the Game 6 home run, Soler became only the 4th Braves player to hit 3 home runs in a single World Series. In six Fall Classic games, Soler had 6 RBI, 3 home runs, an OPS of 1.191, and a batting average of .300. Of course, he won World Series MVP honors, an award he was a longshot to win at the start of the World Series.

Teammate Freddie Freeman was the most popular World Series MVP bet with 16.8% of the tickets and 19% of the total betting handle and was the biggest liability at BetMGM. Soler opened as a +3500 to win World Series MVP but after Game 4’s heroics, his odds had shortened to +500. Freeman tied 1996, Fred McGriff, for most home runs by a Braves player in a single postseason and was undoubtedly key to Atlanta’s success all-season long but the World Series belonged to Jorge Soler.

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Shane Acedera / Author

Shane grew up watching the Magic & Bird rivalry but ended up rooting for Detroit's Bad Boys team in the 1990s NBA. He loves to tell sports stories and has been writing about sports since high school. When Shane isn't busy jotting down his thoughts, he's just chillin' at home with his wife Rocelle and their two dogs named Horry and Fisher. He recently added a new family member, adopting a handsome retired K-9 named Ranger.

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