Bernie Heads into New Hampshire a Strong Betting Favorite

Students and Young People Showing Their Support to American Politician Bernie Sanders

Highlights:
  • After a week of incompetency and controversies in Iowa, the Iowa Democratic Party is calling Pete Buttigieg the winner by 0.1% – despite losing the popular vote by roughly 6,000.
  • On Friday, the candidates will meet on the debate stage at St. Anslem College in Manchester, New Hampshire, in a final chance to make their case to voters deciding the next contest.
  • The following Tuesday, February 11, is the New Hampshire primary – which Sen. Sanders is a -550 moneyline favorite to win.

Following Monday’s Iowa caucus, this week was supposed to be all about New Hampshire — the second state on the road to the Democratic nomination. Instead, the collective focus of the electorate has remained on the starting line, where the DNC decided to show their hand remarkably early in the game.

Here are some of the broad strokes:
  • The weekend before the Iowa caucus, the Buttigieg campaign managed to get the Des Moine Register poll shuttered over a single respondent claiming that Pete’s name was omitted from their survey.
  • Considered the most accurate predictor of the Iowa results, DMR had Bernie winning the state, with Warren in second, and Mayor Pete in third.
  • On Monday, an app developed by a company named Shadow Inc. — a for-profit subsidiary of a non-profit super-PAC called ACRONYM – began reporting faulty results from individual caucus precincts.
  • ACRONYM was founded by Tara McGowan, a technology-minded DNC operative.
  • McGowan’s husband is Michael Halle – a campaign strategist employed by the Buttigieg campaign.
  • Michael’s brother and Tara McGowan’s brother-in-law is Ben Halle, Mayor Pete’s Comms Director in Iowa.
  • Shadow Inc. leadership who previously worked on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: Gerard Niemira (CEO), Ahna Roa (Product Manager), James Hickey (COO), Krista Davis (CTO)
  • Expecting interference from the DNC, Bernie’s team developed their own app and kept thorough records of the various caucuses. When the Iowa Democratic Party started talking about “inconsistencies,” the Sanders campaign released its numbers.

Things came to a standstill once it became clear that the results were riddled with mistakes and inaccuracies. On Monday night, with 0% of the tallies made official, Mayor Pete claimed victory. That was the start of what’s looking like a blatant political psy-op.

While the Iowa Democratic Party claimed to be recounting the totals, using the paper worksheets and photographic evidence from the precincts, cable news networks handed Buttigieg the momentum by continually showing graphics with him leading and referring to the Mayor as the “winner.”

From there, the “re-tallied” numbers trickled out.

  • On Tuesday, the IDP released only 62% of the caucus figures – putting Bernie Sanders ahead in the popular vote, but Buttigieg in the lead with state delegates (SDE).
  • This continued throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. Now, with the DNC involved, the results came out in small increments, and primarily from parts of the state in which Pete was more popular – allowing the media to continue showing the South Bend Mayor as the winner.
  • “Several precinct chiefs posted numerous discrepancies in the IDP’s quality controlled” data, with proof of the errors. In every single case, the “coincidental” mistake hurt Sanders.
  • By Wednesday night, the only caucuses left to count were in locations partial to Bernie. The final update from the Democratic party officials showed Sen. Sanders leading the popular vote by around 6,000 and trailing Pete Buttigieg in SDEs by only three.
  • The only precincts left to tally were from satellite caucuses, in which the Sanders campaign dominated.
  • THAT’s when DNC Chairman, Tom Perez, decided to step in on Thursday and call for a “recanvassing,” of Iowa.
  • He didn’t interfere to correct any of the publicized mistakes from precinct captains – costing Sanders state delegates in every case. It was only when Mayor Pete’s campaign complained about the minority-driven satellite caucuses being worth an equal number of SDEs that Perez chose to intervene.

At this point, the Bernie Sanders supporters on social media knew the fix was in. As expected, Tom Perez did nothing to address the previously publicized errors that hurt Bernie. Yet, he helped Mayor Pete by limiting the impact of the satellite caucuses.

On Thursday night, CNN and the Democratic Party exposed their coordinated corruption. They waited for Sanders to finish his town hall on CNN and for Pete Buttigieg’s to begin – strategically releasing the results in time for Andrew Cuomo to inform the Mayor of his “victory” live during the broadcast.

After Tom Perez’s tampering, Pete was declared the “winner” for a 1.5 lead in state delegates – despite being soundly beaten in the popular vote.

What happened in Iowa is terrifyingly reminiscent of the behavior of despots and dictators in third-world countries. Had it taken place in a South American or Middle Eastern country, the United States would justify military intervention or economic sanctions. United Nations election inspectors would be called upon too.

The “Fix” is In?

What the past 72-hours in Iowa showed voters – especially Sanders supporters – is that the Democratic primaries will not be a fair fight. State-level officials will do what’s necessary to gum up the contests, and when caught, the national party leadership will step in to assist with the cover-up.

I don’t mention this to complain; it’s something we must consider whe n betting on the elections. As a political handicapper, my primary concern is determining whether or not Perez and the DNC are telegraphing their corrupt intentions too early.

This could go a few different ways:

1) Bernie Sanders supporters – with their suspicions about DNC rigging the primaries validated – will channel their anger into more action. They’ll donate more, volunteer more, and keep a closer eye on every facet of the remaining primaries and caucuses to shine a light on any new cheating.

His coalition swells to the point of undeniability, and Sen. Sanders takes the nomination despite the party’s best attempts at cheating him.

2) The Democratic Party continues working against the Bernie camp as egregiously and blatantly as they did in Iowa. Over time, it demoralizes and disenfranchises Sanders supporters into not showing and participating in the electoral process anymore. Participation steadily declines, allowing the DNC-approved moderates to succeed.

3) Sanders keeps up the pressure, but the party just keeps interfering to help his opponents as often as possible, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Progressives are confronted with the reality that our electoral system is irreparably corrupted, and their votes don’t matter.

The problem is, only one of these outcomes gives the Democratic Party a chance of winning the 2020 general election. Iowa has already exposed the DNC and cost them a substantial number of votes against Donald Trump in November. By making their underhandedness so transparent, they’re radicalizing Sanders supporters, growing the percentage of them who are “Bernie or Bust.”

All Eyes on New Hampshire

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Winner Moneyline Odds
Bernie Sanders -550
Pete Buttigieg +325
Elizabeth Warren +2000
Joe Biden +2000
Andrew Yang +5000
Amy Klobuchar +10000

Despite the controversial – if not criminal – finish in Iowa, all the candidates can do now is look ahead to New Hampshire. The state has 24 pledged delegates to allocate, in addition to another nine superdelegates who will vote on the second ballot of the Democratic National Convention.

Before the New Hampshire primaries on February 11, however, the field of contenders will meet on yet another debate stage.

If they didn’t have plenty to talk about before, they sure do now!

New Hampshire Debate

Debate Info:
  • Date: February 7, 2020, at 8 p.m. ET
  • Location: Manchester, New Hampshire
  • Venue: St. Anselm College
  • Partners: ABC, WMUR-TV, and Apple News
  • Moderators: Linsey Davis, David Muir, and George Stephanopoulos
Qualified Participants:
  • Joe Biden
  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Andrew Yang
  • Tom Steyer
  • Amy Klobuchar

What happened in Iowa will be on the top of everybody’s mind heading into the eighth Democratic debate. Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg will likely disagree on who, indeed, finished first in the state – an argument Bernie should win, based on Mayor Pete’s repeated criticisms of the electoral college versus the popular vote. Buttigieg has also taken on several new super PAC donors.

The debate will also be Joe Biden’s first opportunity to respond to his poor showing in Iowa and convince donors and voters that he’s still a viable candidate. It will be interesting to see if he attacks Buttigieg, trying to win back some of the supporters who defected to the Mayor or continues focusing on Bernie.

Based on the coordination we’ve seen thus far between the DNC, moderate candidates, and the media – I’d expect Biden and Klobuchar to acknowledge Pete’s win in Iowa. They may criticize him for making the announcement so irresponsibly early, but I highly doubt they’ll challenge the validity of the win.

There will be more attention paid to ensuring Bernie isn’t a “poor sport” and that he still agrees to unify the party, no matter who is nominated.

Betting on the New Hampshire Primary

The New Hampshire primary doesn’t present an especially exciting wagering opportunity to political handicappers, thanks to Bernie Sanders’s position as a substantial –550 favorite. In 2016, the Senator from Vermont received 61% of the vote to defeat Hillary Clinton – winning 15 pledged delegates to her nine.

The latest poll numbers agree with political oddsmakers – Sanders is the person to beat in New Hampshire. However, the same figures show Pete Buttigieg making up ground quickly. Of the five newest polls shared at FiveThirtyEight’s primary tracker, four show Bernie winning (one of which, by only a single point), and a single Monmouth University poll has Sanders and Buttigieg tied at 28%.

From the looks of the data, the DNC-and-liberal-media’s cooperation in propping up Mayor Pete as the “winner” in Iowa has worked. He’s experiencing a significant surge in the polls, most of which is coming from Biden defectors.

Additionally, after what the Democrats just pulled in Iowa, it’s hard to know if you can trust poll numbers. Do the people’s votes even matter, or are they just making up the rules as they go and picking whichever candidate the donor class wants?

To Win the New Hampshire Primary – Pete Buttigieg (+325)
It’s with that kind of corrupt malfeasance in mind that – against my moral judgment – I’m suggesting a moderate upset bet on Pete Buttigieg at +325.

New Hampshire’s Voting Machines

The Shadow Inc. scandal and ensuing DNC cover-up of an improperly-run caucus got me thinking about what new tricks party officials and Democratic donors might employ in New Hampshire. The first place I looked was to the state’s ballots and AccuVote vote-counting machines.

One explanation for Senator Sanders’s status as the heavy betting favorite is the state’s paper ballots. Residents fill out their ballot by hand before 85% of the participants insert them into an Accuvote machine – the other 15% are counted by hand. Polls don’t close until the last person in line has voted.

The AccuVote machines all have their modems removed and are unhackable from the outside. As ballots are inserted, the counting machines print the totals on a paper tape. After the polls close, all of the results are calculated in a central database, and the state party has multiple hard copies of each vote cast for verification purposes.

New Hampshire Primary Betting Ideas

Friday’s debate could play a crucial role in next week’s primary contest, adding a layer of difficulty to my predictions. At –550, it’s not worth betting on Bernie Sanders – the risk isn’t worth the reward. He should win handily, but after Iowa, I couldn’t stomach laying $550 on the line just to win $100.

I’m looking at two long-shot upset picks for relatively small stakes.

I like Pete at +325 because he has a background that strongly suggests connections within the military intelligence community. Those rumors were only enforced by his association with the Shadow Inc./ACRONYM teams. Then there’s the Mayor’s attendance at last Spring’s “how do we stop Bernie” DNC meetings, and the campaign’s ability to get the Des Moines Register poll and satellite caucuses spiked when they weren’t favorable to Buttigieg.

Combined with the Democratic Party’s disdain for Senator Sanders and Pete’s hijacked momentum from Iowa, I can see a realistic path for the Mayor to steal another improbable win.

Pete Buttigieg – To Win NH Primary
+325

I’m also tempted to put a little bet on Joe Biden, bouncing back in a stunning upset in New Hampshire. If on the debate stage, Buttigieg comes across as dishonest, smug, and undeserving of his Iowa victory as he should, and Biden reasserts himself well, maybe he’ll regain some of that lost support. Then you just need a few moderates who fall below the 15% viability threshold to send their votes to the recovering former VP, and he’s back in this thing!

Sleeper! To Win the NH Primary – Joe Biden (+2000)
But remember, it’s highly probable that Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary. These are just fun underdog picks, just in case!
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

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