Bloomberg’s Exit Improves Odds of Biden Nomination

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Headlines:
  • Michael Bloomberg’s late entry into the Democratic primaries meant the multi-billionaire would need to make up ground on Super Tuesday to have a realistic shot at the nomination.
  • Worth approximately $60 billion, the former NY Mayor launched an unprecedented campaign that blanketed the airwaves with hundreds-of-millions of dollars in advertisements, in addition to purchasing an online army of influencers and a plethora of endorsements from politicians who have benefited from Bloomberg Philanthropies’ donations.
  • On Super Tuesday, Joe Biden exceeding expectations while Bloomberg fell flat. The next day he suspended his campaign and endorsed the former Vice President for the Democratic nomination, increasing Biden’s odds of winning the nomination.

On Wednesday, Joe Biden got more good news when fellow conservative Democrat, Michael Bloomberg, withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed the frontrunner. With this move, the former Vice President is the lone moderate left seeking the nomination, further consolidating establishment support and more traditional Democratic voters behind one candidate – in opposition to Bernie Sanders.

Michael Bloomberg’s absence should send another ~10% of the Democratic electorate Biden’s way. Joe already became a significant favorite at all of the top political betting sites after his surprising Super Tuesday performance – which saw him win multiple states as an underdog, such as Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine, and Texas.

In addition to helping Biden consolidate more moderate support, the former New York Mayor is also pledging to put his considerable resources behind the probable DNC nominee. Bloomberg spent over $500 million to fund his short-lived campaign – if he finances Joe Biden’s candidacy with that same enthusiasm, he’ll boost Joe’s odds of winning both the Democratic primaries and the general election.

Bloomberg’s Withdrawal and Endorsement Solidify Biden as Favorite

Betting Option To Win DNC Nomination
Joe Biden -500
Bernie Sanders +550
Hillary Clinton +1800
Michelle Obama +8000
Elizabeth Warren +20000
Tulsi Gabbard +50000

Since the South Carolina primary, Joe Biden has been steadily rocketing up the board – officially becoming the betting favorite on Wednesday morning. Following Bernie Sanders’s landslide victory in the Nevada caucus, the Vermont Senator was sitting at –150 while Biden could be found at roughly +850 – an outstanding value, in hindsight.

From the SC debate through the primary contest on February 29, the now-presumptive nominee saw the gap between his and the former favorite, Bernie Sanders’s, betting odds gradually narrow.

I discussed the details of what happened next in another article: Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out, and Biden received a wave of prominent endorsements. By March 2, — the day before Super Tuesday – Biden’s line was posted at +119, versus Bernie’s +100.

The explosive shift in momentum carried over to the next day when Joe’s huge delegate haul cemented him as the favorite and dealt a critical blow to the Sanders campaign. The Super Tuesday performance alone pushed Biden’s odds to –375. Now, with Bloomberg leaving the race and offering his money and organization to the career Democrat, you’ll have to stake $500 on Obama’s former VP just to win $100!

Interesting Issue:

Before the Nevada debate in February, DNC leadership changed the qualification rules for debates, specifically to make room for Bloomberg on stage. Rather than basing the requirements on individual donor numbers and polls, an exception was made to also include any candidate that wins a pledged delegate in a previous primary contest.

Now, Mike is out of the race and Tulsi Gabbard managed to win a delegate on Tuesday. I highly doubt DNC leadership will allow Congresswoman Gabbard back in the debates – providing Bernie with an ally on stage — so expect another rule change announcement with the billionaire gone.

Democratic Party officials could further disenfranchise fringe voters with yet another blatant case of favoritism — something to consider when betting the general election.

All Eyes on Elizabeth Warren

One of the main reasons for Biden’s Super Tuesday success and strong lead as the betting favorite is that while the moderates cleared the way for him, Elizabeth Warren remained in the race, effectively splitting the leftist lane with Sanders.

In several states that Bernie lost, Warren drew away just enough support for Biden to win – whereas had she withdrawn, Sen. Sanders would have enjoyed a comfortable margin of victory.

Joe Biden Vice Presidential Running Mate Betting

Betting Option To Become Biden’s VP Pick
Kamala Harris +175
Amy Klobuchar +350
Stacey Abrams +350
Elizabeth Warren +500
Pete Buttigieg +750
Catherine Cortez Masto +850

On Wednesday, news broke that surrogates from the Warren and Sanders campaigns have opened discussions about the Massachusetts Senator ending her campaign to endorse Bernie – potentially to unite as his Vice President on a single progressive ticket.

In that same report, the author mentioned that Joe’s campaign had also reached out to Warren. It makes too much sense for Biden to tap the progressive policy wonk as his own running mate instead. Not only would her endorsement deal the final knockout blow to the Sanders candidacy, but she could be a vital voice to bridge the gap between moderates and progressive Democrats.

I love the idea of taking Warren to be Joe Biden’s Vice-Presidential pick at +500!
Biden’s VP Picks – Elizabeth Warren (+500)

Value in Potential Democratic Nomination Upsets?

Currently, Bernie Sanders’s only chance of obtaining a pledged delegate majority is if Elizabeth Warren drops out and Joe Biden’s campaign implodes. It’s unlikely, but considering the former Delaware Senator’s observable mental decline, it’s not out of the question.

I’d suggest taking advantage of the current Biden hype to find value in a few upset picks. Should the 77-year-old frontrunner find himself not fit to compete with Trump in the generals, the nomination could come down to a brokered convention, at which point any Democrat could be chosen.

Consider making one underdog bet on Bernie Sanders coming back to become the nominee by sweeping through the remaining states, but know that the party will only support his candidacy if the progressive Senator arrives at the convention in Milwaukee with the 1,991 pledged delegates needed for a majority.

Your other upset pick should be a Democrat with enough clout within the DNC ranks to win a contested convention despite not having competed in the primaries. If the current candidates fail to build a delegate majority, and Biden is determined unfit to nominate. People like Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar are interesting options.

Tip:
Hillary Clinton’s odds jumped from +5000 on March 3 to +1800 on March 4 – the oddsmakers see the 2016 nominee potentially orchestrating an historic power-play on the convention floor too!
DNC Nomination Upset Bet! – Hillary Clinton (+1800)
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

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