- Brandon Moreno is a slight -157 betting favorite in his recently booked match against Deiveson Figueiredo.
- Moreno and Figueiredo were both listed at -110 when the betting lines first opened for their UFC 269 trilogy bout.
- Figueiredo opened and closed as a favorite of at least -200 in their first two meetings.
Brandon Moreno is the slight betting favorite in his first title defense against Deiveson Figueiredo.
The trilogy is on!
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 16, 2021
Moreno and Figueiredo have been booked to meet for the third consecutive bout at UFC 269 on December 11th after Moreno’s supposed challenger, Alexander Pantoja could not commit to a December date and Moreno insisting to fight before the year is over.
As of the latest odds at online sportsbook BetOnline, Moreno is the -157 odds on favorite while Figueiredo came back at +137.
Both Fighters Opened at -110
UFC 269 Opening Odds:
— FightOdds.io (@FightOdds_io) September 16, 2021
Both Moreno and Fiegueiredo opened at -110 when the trilogy bout was first announced but the early betting movement on the champion has pushed his odds shorter. Figueiredo meanwhile is in unfamiliar territory in this trilogy as he was the solid betting favorite in their first two meetings.
Figgy closed as a -260 odds on favorite in their first encounter which ended in a draw. Despite the very competitive nature of that bout, Figueiredo opened as the -240 betting favorite in their rematch and closed at -230. Moreno meanwhile entered the Octagon as a +250 underdog in their first meeting and was a slightly shorter +190 bottom do in the second fight.
Moreno won the rematch convincingly, stopping Figueiredo via rear-naked choke in round 3 after dominating the Brazilian throughout the fight. Still, the best UFC betting sites aren’t convinced that the Assassin Baby is going to duplicate his previous effort but when you talk about Brandon Moreno, it’s been about proving the oddsmakers wrong.
A True Underdog Tale
Brandon Moreno’s (@theassassinbaby) MMA journey is a true underdog tale. After his submission victory over Deiveson Figueiredo at #UFC263, he proved he’s the type of champion the #UFC needs (Via @ThomasCP_NFL)#MMA #MMATwitter https://t.co/wtrwuc5rnV
— The League Winners MMA (@WinnersMMA) July 9, 2021
When we talk about underdogs, no one fits the bill better than Brandon Moreno who has lived out a true underdog tale. Moreno was seed no. 16 out of 16 fighters when he entered the TUF: Tournament of Champions tournament in 2016. The UFC cut him in 2018 after back to back losses. But he fought his way back and now has reached the top even with the oddsmakers doubting him from fight to fight.
Moreno has closed as the betting underdog in seven of his last 12 bouts, including the two fights against Figueiredo. He went 8-2-2 in those bouts and had a 5-2 record in the seven bouts where he saw the plus money next to his name. Moreno’s two losses during that span came when he was a favorite. He lost to Sergio Pettis as a -175 chalk and was beaten by Alexandre Pantoja after opening as a -170 betting favorite.
As a betting favorite, Moreno has not closed at odds shorter than -190 odds and that came when he fought Ryan Benoit way back in December 2016. He also opened at a career-best -230 against Maikel Perez at LFC 69, but when the betting money came, Moreno closed at a longer -145 in that bout.