Bryce Harper MVP Odds Plummet After Thumb Injury

Bryce Harper Injury MLB MVP Odds

  • Bryce Harper’s MVP odds significantly dropped after he underwent surgery on a broken left thumb.
  • Harper’s odds moved from +1400 to +5000 at BetMGM after the team said he is expected to msiss six weeks to rehab.
  • The Phillies are 7.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East and are three games off the final wild card spot in the NL.

Bryce Harper entered the season as one of the top favorites to win the NL MVP award. But after undergoing surgery on a broken left thumb, his odds to win a second consecutive MVP award plummeted at the top MLB betting sites.

Harper was hit by a 97 mph fastball from Blake Snell during the 4th inning of Saturday’s game against the San Diego Padres. The Phillies won that game but ended up going home as losers with Harper expected to spend six weeks on the Injury List.

The 2021 NL MVP was hitting at .318 with 15 home runs, 48 RBIs, and an OPS of .985 in 64 games played this season as the Phillies try to recover from a slow start to the season and end their decade-long playoff drought.

Latest NL MVP Odds

As it stands before Wednesday’s games, Paul Goldschmidt is the +160 odds on favorite to win the 2022 NL MVP award at BetMGM. Pete Alonso is second at +500 while Manny Machado is next at +550. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Ronald Acuna Jr. complete the Top 6 at +1200, +1400, and +1800. Bryce Harper is now at +5000.

Harper opened with +1400 odds to win the 2022 NL MVP award. He entered Opening Day with +900 odds, behind only Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr. who were listed at +280 and +700. Last June 15th, Harper remained at +900 via BetMGM but was trailing four contenders in Goldschmidt at +250, Betts at +350, Machado at +500, and Alonso at +700.

According to BetMGM, Harper is the most popular bet with 15.1% of the total betting slips written for the NL MVP betting market at the said betting site. For reference, the player with the second-most betting tickets at the same sportsbook is Alonso with 8.7%. But with Harper spending the next six weeks in the IL, that percentage is expected to drop, just like his MVP odds.

Can the Phillies Keep their Playoff Hopes Alive?

Before his injury, Harper produced 42 home runs, 55 doubles, 99 extra-base hits, 17 stolen bases, and a 6.0 win probability added in his last 162 games played. During that stretch, he reached base 290 times while possessing a slash line of .320/.420/.623. Replacing his production will be next to impossible and the longer he stays in the IL, the more the Phillies’ chances of ending their playoff drought will fade.

The Phillies opened as -130 favorites to win over 86.5 games with the under at even money. Right now, that win total is down to 85 games with both the over and under listed at -115 odds. At the start of the current month, the Phillies’ odds to make the playoffs stood at +170 and they were 21-29 on June 1st. They won 15 out of their next 17 games but have since gone 3-5 with a 39-36 record heading to Thursday’s games.

The Phillies are currently 7.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East with the Braves also chasing New York at 3.5 games back. Philadelphia’s current odds to win the division is a long +1500. However, Philadelphia is only three games behind the Cardinals in the race for the final Wild Card spot in the NL. It remains to be seen however if they can keep their playoff hopes alive with Harper on the IL.

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Shane Acedera / Author

Shane grew up watching the Magic & Bird rivalry but ended up rooting for Detroit's Bad Boys team in the 1990s NBA. He loves to tell sports stories and has been writing about sports since high school. When Shane isn't busy jotting down his thoughts, he's just chillin' at home with his wife Rocelle and their two dogs named Horry and Fisher. He recently added a new family member, adopting a handsome retired K-9 named Ranger.

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