- Canelo Alvarez has gone from a -600 to beat Caleb Plant at the opening lines to a -950 to beat the American with less than one week to go before their title unification bout.
- The winner of Saturday’s bout will become the first undisputed champion in boxing’s super middleweight division.
- Bet365 USA is favoring the fight not to go the distance at -225 with the bad blood and rivalry brewing between the two.
With their title unification bout less than a week away, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has become an even bigger betting favorite against Caleb Plant.
Canelo opened as the -600 odds on favorite to beat Plant when the betting lines for a possible title unification first opened shortly after Alvarez stopped Billie Joe Saunders to become a three-belt super middleweight champion. Plant, who owns the IBF belt that would make Alvarez an undisputed champion, hit the betting boards at +475. But that was way back in May.
Fast forward to November 1st and Alvarez is now an even larger -950 betting favorite while Plant’s odds have drifted to +650.
Last month, odds comparison site Oddschecker reported that the majority of the bets for the fight were made on Alvarez. According to the said website, Canelo had 55.7% of the bets placed while Plant only took in 33% with a surprising 10.3% betting on a draw. At that point, Canelo’s odds were already at -800 and Plant at +600. Therefore more betting must’ve come for the Mexican during the month of October forcing his odds to further shorter to -950 in the latest odds boards.
Only One Man Stands Between Canelo and the Undisputed Crown
— ESPN Ringside (@ESPNRingside) November 1, 2021
When Canelo Alvarez decided to reside in boxing’s super middleweight division, he said that his goal would be to unify all the belts and become the first Mexican undisputed boxing champion and the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing’s 4-belt era.
Canelo first won the WBA (super), WBC, and Ring super middleweight titles by defeating Callum Smith in December of last year. He then became a three-belt champion after stopping Billie Joe Saunders last May 8th to annex the WBO belt. That victory set up a date with Plant, who successfully defended his IBF super-middleweight title last February with a win over Caleb Truax.
Alvarez and Plant were initially penciled to fight last September 18th as Canelo traditionally fights on the date nearest Grito de Dolores or the Mexican Independence Day. But just when they were finalizing the bout, contract disputes arose, and the fight was pushed back to November 18th. But as they say, it’s better late than never.
Bad Blood Brewing Between the Two
#CaneloPlant ????? ???? ?
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) November 1, 2021
Bad blood has been brewing between these two fighters ever since they nearly came to blows during their first press event last September. Since that incident, the animosity and rivalry between these two have been growing which should lead to an explosive fight on Saturday night.
Looking at simple win probability, Alvarez’s current -950 odds translate to a 90.5% probability of winning the fight while Plant’s +650 gives him just a 13.3% chance of becoming undisputed super middleweight champion. That gives you an idea of what the best boxing betting sites are expecting.
Alvarez has predicted a knockout before round 8 while Plant has maintained that he’d rather show us rather than tell us how he will win. The best boxing betting sites are saying that this fight will NOT go the distance with Bet3365 USA favoring it at -225. Alvarez is a -210 to win the fight via KO, TKO, or DQ while the best odds for Plant to win is via decision or technical decision at +1100. The oddsmakers also favor Canelo’s predicted round 8 and round 9 as the likely rounds when the fight will end at +850 if it doesn’t go the distance (+162).