Canelo Opens as Massive Betting Favorite in Gennady Golovkin Trilogy Bout

Canelo Golovkin 3

  • Canelo Alvarez has opened as the -410 betting favorite to beat Gennady Golovkin in a third bout.
  • Alvarez is expected to choose a Golovkin trilogy bout over a Dmitry Bivol rematch when he returns to the ring in September.
  • Canelo fought GGG to a draw in their first bout in 2017. He defeated Golovkin via majority decision in a rematch one year later.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has opened as a heavy betting favorite to beat Gennady Golovkin in a third bout.

According to the best boxing betting sites, Alvarez is a -410 and Golovkin at +290 in a likely third meeting on September 17th:

Canelo is expected to make his boxing return on the Mexican Independence Day weekend and will reportedly stake his 168-pound belts in a third bout with Golovkin.

Golovkin Trilogy Likely for September

The odds re-opened after Matchroom’s Eddie Hearn, Canelo’s promoter, told USA Today sports that Alvarez will make his decision next week and that it is likely that the Mexican boxing start will choose a trilogy fight with Gennady Golovkin for his expected ring return on September 17th.

Alvarez and Golovkin fought to a split draw in their first bout on September 16, 2017. In that bout, Alvarez opened as the +140 underdog and closed at +170 odds. The two fought in a rematch one year later and Alvarez defeated Golovkin in a close majority decision. Once again, the Mexican star was the underdog in that bout, opening at +150 and closing at +135. The pair went separate ways after the bout although the thought of a third fight was always at the back of everybody’s mind.

Two years later, the best boxing betting sites opened the odds for the trilogy fight after discussions were renewed. At that time, Alvarez was listed at -200 and Golovkin at +150. But that was in September 2020. Canelo has fought five times since then, going 4-1 with three stoppage wins. Meanwhile, Golovkin has fought only twice during that span and is now a ripe old 40-years old.

GGG TKOs Murata in 9 Rounds

Golovkin is coming off an April 9, 2022 win over Ryota Murata in Japan to add the latter’s WBA (super) middleweight title to his IBF and IBO belts. While we saw some flashes of the Golovkin of old in that bout, an old Golovkin was also evident in Triple G’s most recent performance in Japan. Golovkin not only looked old against Murata but he was also easily hit and appeared to be hurt by the 36-year-old Japanese fighter.

Triple G was a massive -700 favorite to beat Murata but it took the 40-year-old Golovkin 9 rounds to put away the obviously overmatched opponent. Murata even gave Golovkin fits in the first four rounds of the bout before fading in the second half of the bout. One fight before that, Golovkin was also a huge -3000 betting favorite against Kamil Szeremeta. In that bout, Golovkin also needed 7 rounds to dispose of Szeremeta and looked much slower than his already slow old self.

Alvarez is coming off a huge upset loss against Dmitry Bivol when he challenged for the WBA (super) light heavyweight title. Canelo went as high as a -650 in that bout but he was dominated by the younger, faster, and bigger Bivol. The loss was Canelo’s first since a 2013 loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. After the bout, there were reports that Alvarez was interested in a Bivol rematch. But considering the loss that his image took after that defeat, there’s a good chance he will build his stock back against the 40-year-old Golovkin.

Shane Acedera / Author

Shane grew up watching the Magic & Bird rivalry but ended up rooting for Detroit's Bad Boys team in the 1990s NBA. He loves to tell sports stories and has been writing about sports since high school. When Shane isn't busy jotting down his thoughts, he's just chillin' at home with his wife Rocelle and their two dogs named Horry and Fisher. He recently added a new family member, adopting a handsome retired K-9 named Ranger.

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