- In the week leading up to Super Tuesday, the Democratic Party has decided to consolidate around Joe Biden – the establishment’s presumptive choice to run against Trump.
- Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer all suspended their campaigns, leaving the moderate/centrist lane unimpeded for the former Vice President.
- Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Harry Reid, Tim Kaine, Tammy Duckworth, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz all publicly endorsed Biden over the course of four days, following his strong performance in South Carolina.
- While moderates consolidated, Elizabeth Warren stayed in the race to compete for Sen. Sanders’s progressive support, helping Joe and costing Bernie several crucial states on Super Tuesday.
Well… somehow, after three-plus years of fretting and obsessing over Donald Trump, the Democratic Party has decided to change absolutely nothing in their approach to presidential elections.
Forget about the populist movements erupting all around the globe and the palpable economic tensions emerging here at home – they’re apparently still blaming 2016 on the racists, sexists, and Russians hiding under the bed!
It has to be the fault of the unwashed masses occupying our electorate, because otherwise, the Democratic political strategists, pundits, and think tanks were bad at their jobs – and well, they’re raking in way too much cash under the current system to be that self-reflective.
Joe Biden’s Super Tuesday
On the eve of Super Tuesday, the comedy of corruption that is the Democratic primaries kicked into high gear, when Barack Obama reportedly initiated a coordinated effort — via a series of phone calls — to consolidate moderate support behind one Joe Biden.
The former VP’s two centrist opponents – Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar – obediently suspended their campaigns and endorsed Biden almost immediately. Next, every member of the DNC’s establishment elite, donor class, and the national security sector – including war criminals John Brennan and James Comey — let it be known than Joe was their guy too.
Judging the effectiveness of this series of strategic maneuvers ultimately depends on the DNC’s goal. If their top priority was to deeply wound the Sanders campaign, Super Tuesday was a raging success. If the Democrats were hoping to remove Donald Trump from office, they all but ensured that won’t happen now.
Welcome back to 2016! This time, the role of “Hillary Clinton” will be played by former Vice President Joe Biden.
The Most Profitable Way to Bet
Bout after bout, my prophetic visions mystified my companions. “How could you possibly know that there’d be a brutal eye-poke in the first round?!”
I didn’t pay for a single beer that night – each was won through a series of increasingly ridiculous wagers against my tablemates. Our server promised that it wasn’t a replay — that the manager ordered the PPV hours ago. My victims shrugged their shoulders, scratched their heads, and kept paying up those delicious free drinks.
There’s nothing more profitable than betting on re-runs!
Lucky for us, the DNC, powerful liberal donors, and their establishment-loyal, moderate candidates executed a series of political moves this week, that – when scrutinized – are all-but-guaranteeing a presidential election identical to 2016.
Bernie vs. Everyone – The DNC Consolidates Moderate Lane
|Dem Candidate||Odds to Win DNC Nomination|
Before I go any further, let me first say; I think the DNC made the right tactical move – having Klobuchar and Buttigieg drop out 1-2 days before Super Tuesday.
Don’t get me wrong; Joe Biden is a terrible candidate to run against Donald Trump, and he’ll be soundly defeated doing so, but it was the party’s strongest play – from the perspective of trying to stop Bernie – they’ve made during this entire election cycle.
Rather than making the same mistake as the Republicans in 2016, allowing a fractured field to divide moderate supporters, they acted swiftly – and with excellent timing.
Once Democrats saw Joe Biden’s substantial margin of victory in South Carolina was fueled by older black voters, it was obvious the 78-year-old’s base offered the best foundation upon which to build the moderate ticket.
“House of Cards”
Obama’s plan worked brilliantly, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar proved to be the right candidates to bow out and deliver their supporters to Biden. Pete alone couldn’t lead a Democratic ticket because he was never able to gain any traction with black voters – an essential bloc of the party.
The same goes for Amy Klobuchar, who did a slightly worse job of appealing to the affluent white liberals who made up the vast majority of both their bases.
However, when their suburban supporters joined Biden’s coalition, they pushed the former Vice President over the 15% viability threshold in many districts.
Snake in the Grass
The real stroke of genius, though, was convincing Elizabeth Warren to stab Sanders in the back. The former Harvard Law professor has made one idiotic strategic error after another throughout the entirety of her campaign, costing her droves of voters in the process.
She broke the “ progressive unity” pact leftists expected between Liz and Bernie early and often, but always in passive-aggressive ways that let her maintain plausible deniability – whatever leaks or attacks were never her doing.
Gradually, her snipes at Bernie became more direct, culminating in Warren reversing her promise not to accept super PAC money and rationalizing it by mislabeling groups like — Our Revolution and the Sunrise Movement – a youth climate change movement — “dark money.”
Unlike the two drop-outs, Sen. Warren is more useful to the Democrats in the race, where she’ll draw more support away from Bernie’s progressive base than from Biden.
She entered Tuesday’s contests not expected to win a single state. In fact, she was an underdog in Massachusetts, her home! Ultimately, her result was even worse than expected when the Senator finished third, behind both Biden and Sanders.
Warren’s presence split the leftist vote, costing Sanders critical upset losses in multiple states. Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Texas all unexpectedly went to the DNC’s favorite, all by margins slimmer than the number of so-called progressives who voted for “Liz.”
The best part is she’s still not done twisting the knife. Senator Warren is willing to permanently damage her reputation, expose herself as a hypocrite over super PACs, and out herself as a fake progressive in order to deliver maximum damage to Bernie’s grassroots movement.
If there’s one question I hope to have answered, it’s what the DNC offered Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and some of Joe’s newest endorsements. Pete quit the race with roughly four times as many pledged delegates as Sen. Warren. Amy Klobuchar dropped out while leading Bernie in Minnesota – her home state – both in the polls and at political betting sites.
What was promised to Elizabeth Warren for her to ignore attacking Joe Biden’s resume in Washington DC, especially as one of the credit card industry’s biggest allies in Congress. It was his 2005 bankruptcy bills that inspired Warren to run for a Senate seat in the first place!
Instead, she conveniently jabs at her “dear friend” Bernie anytime he gains a little momentum – leaking a dishonest story to portray him as a misogynist, publicly condemning his enthusiastic supporters as some angry mob being controlled by Sanders, and accusing the Senator of getting nothing done in Congress.
None of this behavior was done out of raw party loyalty; the DNC is incentivizing these decisions — each of which is singularly designed to minimize Bernie Sanders’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination on the first ballot at the convention.
Be Careful What You Wish For, DNC
It’s not going to be as easy to ignore or cover up Joe’s weekly lies and gaffes in a narrower field. No more debates where Joe can hit all his big lines early then coast out the second half as quietly as possible, as to limit exposer once he gets tired and loopy – they figured out that trick around the third or fourth debate.
I’m not trying to be rude or biased when I say that Joe Biden is very seriously suffering from some form of cognitive decline – whether it’s dementia or senility or something else. Whatever it is, if you’ve been watching closely, it’s clear that he doesn’t seem to know where he is or what’s going on a lot of the time.
This, after about a dozen bizarrely aggressive confrontations showing up online, including numerous instances of Biden responding to minor criticisms or challenges from registered Democrats by apathetically encouraging them to support someone else.
What happens at the next debates?
If Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, or both drop out of the race in the next week or so, Joe Biden is going to be one of only two or three participants on stage. All the collusion and moderator help in the world can’t keep up that façade over two full hours.
After Super Tuesday, Bernie has no option but to launch pointed, specific attacks at his conservative opponent’s decades of damning Congressional votes.
The static kicked up by the other candidates can’t provide cover anymore; Sanders will have space to follow up and force him to stay on a subject when Biden is trying to be evasive. If you haven’t been paying close attention, it’s comical how many blunders and non-answers the former Delaware Senator has skated by with thus far – that’s about to change.
(MyBookie) Biden to Win DNC Nomination
- Matchup Odds
While winnowing the field had the desired intentions on Super Tuesday, I’m not sure the DNC has thought this thing out fully. Unless Michael Bloomberg is meant to be their Plan B, the establishment is putting an unrealistic amount of faith in Joe Biden’s ability to navigate the additional facetime and amplified voice without talking himself out of a job.
If Bloomberg and Warren end their campaigns soon – which the billionaire is reportedly considering after Super Tuesday – sundowning Joe is left alone on an island with Bernie Sanders. The race is to secure enough pledged delegates to prevent the possibility of a majority before Biden implodes. Then party leaders can bide their time and pick whomever they want on the convention floor – “senior moments” or none.
Following Super Tuesday, MyBookie pulled the Joe Biden prop bet posted above.
Bernie vs. Biden vs. Contested Convention
All I had to do was research the new rules after DNC officials promised to eliminate superdelegates. There was no way establishment insiders would relinquish that much control over the selection without a contingency plan.
The superdelegates were only removed from the equation for the first national convention vote.
If none of the candidates secure a majority – not a plurality – of the pledged delegates (1,991) on the initial ballot, not only are the 770 lobbyists and Democratic insiders (superdelegates) added to all subsequent votes, but every previously pledged delegate earned over the course of the primaries instantly becomes unpledged!
They can pick whomever they want from that point forward.
The way the DNC increased the likelihood of multiple convention floor ballots was changing the individual state contests from “winner takes all” to proportional allocation. This made the degree to which a candidate won a primary or caucus more crucial than merely winning.
Every participant to receive over 15% of the vote gets a cut of the state’s delegates. Under the new rules, it was far less likely that Sanders could build enough momentum in the opening two contests to generate an unassailable lead.
Ultimately, these changes were used to determine which candidates should withdraw and which should stay for Super Tuesday, when DNC leadership was crafting their master plan to boost Joe Biden to the top of the ticket.
(Bovada) Will the DNC Have a Brokered Convention?
- Matchup Odds
I’m a firm believer that a brokered convention is inevitable. Moderate Democrats delivered a critical blow to the Sanders candidacy on Super Tuesday by using Elizabeth Warren to steal Massachusetts, Maine, and Minnesota from Bernie – he was relying on some substantial wins in some of those areas to successfully obtain a delegate majority.
Now, the risk isn’t so much about Bernie arriving at the convention with a plurality of delegates — not a majority — and having the nomination stolen; the bigger concern is whether Joe Biden will win the most delegates. If Biden comes to Milwaukee with so much as a one-delegate lead, the backroom deals will be agreed upon prior to the first vote, and he’ll be nominated without needing a contested convention.
Since I’m confident that Joe Biden will flounder under the microscope of a frontrunner, I expect him to limp into July, a humiliated and confused man, who did just enough to keep Bernie away from a delegate majority.
(MyBookie) Democratic Nominee Specials
- Matchup Odds
- DNC Nominates Bernie Sanders-120
- DNC Nominates Joe Biden+100
- DNC Nominates the Field (Any Other) +1200
Using that same logic, I’m in love with this bet from MyBookie. Since I can’t see Joe Biden maintaining a lead in the primaries, and I know the DNC will do anything in their power to prevent a Bernie Sanders nomination – including cheat, there must be another candidate who will emerge as a viable option at the Democratic National Convention.
Anyone can be elected on the second ballot – even if they never declared their candidacy or competed in the primaries. If worse comes to worst, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hillary Clinton herself materialize on the convention floor. Maybe it will be Elizabeth Warren.
Imagining Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
|Candidate||(Bovada) Presidential Election Futures Odds|
If the Democratic Party is crazy enough to actually nominate Joe Biden to challenge Donald Trump in the generals, we may be privy to one of the most memorable, cringe-worthy, one-sided elections in modern American politics. While his primary candidates may have treated Joe with kid gloves to date, the Republicans will not.
The President is already tweeting videos of Biden’s campaign trail gaffes highlight reel, questioning his mental health, and calling him “Sleepy Joe.” I’ll be covering this matchup in much greater detail in future articles. In the meantime, check out these presidential election futures odds, as well as the “exact result” election bets below.
(MyBookie) Presidential Election Odds – Exact Results
Trump vs. Sanders
- Trump Beats Sanders (+150)
- Sanders Beats Trump (+375)
Trump vs. Biden
- Trump Beats Biden (+175)
- Biden Beats Trump (+400)
Trump vs. Bloomberg
- Trump Beats Bloomberg (+1600)
- Bloomberg Beats Trump (+2000)
Trump vs. Warren
- Trump Beats Warren (+6000)
- Warren Beats Trump (+15000)
Because we don’t know how long Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren will remain in the race, or who else may throw their hat into the ring at the Democratic National Convention in July, your best bet is to find opportunities to pick the field against both Sanders and Biden.
Biden’s Last Stand
On Super Tuesday, Joe Biden benefited from political coordination nearly as shrewd as something you’d see on House of Cards. The Democratic Party got organized, learned from the GOP’s mistakes in 2016, and played the Bernie Sanders campaign and progressive electorate like a fiddle.
That’s all well and good, — but now the foggy-minded gunslinger has to take the plan home. Will it be too much for a man who routinely forgets where he is, the office for which he’s running, and whether the woman at his side is his wife or sister to lead the charge against the DNC’s public enemies #1 and #2 – Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders (and not necessarily in that order)?
Can such a man – who has responded to light criticisms from Democratic supporters with pushup contests and chest-pokes – withstand the intense scrutinization of his (highly questionable) Congressional record without self-destructing?
I doubt it – but he’ll play a key role in derailing Bernie Sanders, and that’s all the DNC every cared about in the first place. If anything, they’ll relish another four years of having Donald Trump around to receive all the blame for the Democratic Party’s rotten, corrupt core.