Early UFC 266 Bet Count Favoring Underdogs Lauren Murphy and Jairzinho Rozenstuik

Murphy And Shevchenko With Rozenstruik And Blaydes And UFC VS Logo

  • 66% of the early bet count are on Lauren Murphy at +700 versus Valentina Shevchenko(-1400).
  • Likewise, Jairzinho Rozenstruik at +250 has garnered 69% of the bet count against Curtis Blaydes (-300).
  • Murphy and Blaydes are the two biggest underdogs in the UFC 266 main card.

With the betting odds for UFC 266 going live for weeks and even months ( for the big fights ) now, the best MMA bettings sites already have an idea of how the public is betting on the UFC 266 bouts.

According to figures tallied by online sportsbook BetOnline, there are a couple of underdogs in the main card with a heavy betting count. Brian Ortega however, isn’t one of them:

Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski has a solid 63% of the early betting count while fan-favorite Nick Diaz has 65% of the bets in his pick’em fight against Robbie Lawler. Meanwhile, former women’s strawweight champion Jessica Andrade has taken 58% of the bets against Cynthia Calvillo.

Five Successful Title Defenses

Valentina Shevchenko has ruled the UFC women’s flyweight division with an iron fist. Since fighting at this weight class, she has been undefeated and virtually unscathed. As the inaugural champion, she has closed as a betting favorite of at least -450 in each of her five title defenses, entering the ring at over +1000 in three of those bouts. She won three of those title fights via KO/TKO and lost only one round in a total of 10 in the two bouts that went the distance.

Shevchenko opened as the -720 betting favorite against Lauren Murphy and her odds have shortened to -1400 to -1100 depending on which of the best sportsbooks you use. Murphy meanwhile has gone from +520 when the lines were first posted to +700 in the latest BetOnline odds board. FanDuel and the Caesars Sportsbook even have her as long as +800 but according to BetOnline’s Dave Mason, the challenger has 68% of the betting count.

The 38-year old Murphy has won five straight bouts since she was defeated by Sijara Eubanks in 2018. She has decent punching power with 8 of her 15 wins coming by way of knockout. Murphy averages 1.16 takedown attempts completed per 15 minutes and has recorded a takedown against her last three opponents. But with Shevchenko having no hole in her game, it’s going to take a near-perfect fight for Murphy to win. Or will the law of averages catch up with Shevchenko? Regardless, bettors are going for Murphy’s plus money.

Rozenstruik Knocks Out Sakai

Dying seconds of the round or not, Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s KO win over Augusto Sakai was brutal and it’s how Bigi Boi has won bouts throughout his career. 11 of his 12 wins have come via knockout, Blaydes also has a high knockout rate with Razor sleeping 10 opponents in his 14 wins.

Combined, Blaydes and Rozenstruik have 21 knockouts in 26 wins or an 80.7% knockout percentage. Also, all of Blaydes’ three losses have been via knockout so this is a fight that isn’t likely going the distance. When you have two fighters who can end the fight with one punch, it can end either way so you might as well go with the one with the plus money sign next to his name.

Rozenstruik opened at +198 but his odds have dropped to +250. Blaydes debuted at -240 but is now listed at -300 at BetOnline. Bettors who want to get better value on Bigi Boi might want to check out FanDuel where he is currently listed at +270. Meanwhile, Blaydes is at least a -300 in the best UFC betting sites and is even at -335 at FanDuel and -310 at the Caesars Sportsbook.

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Shane Acedera / Author

Shane grew up watching the Magic & Bird rivalry but ended up rooting for Detroit's Bad Boys team in the 1990s NBA. He loves to tell sports stories and has been writing about sports since high school. When Shane isn't busy jotting down his thoughts, he's just chillin' at home with his wife Rocelle and their two dogs named Horry and Fisher. He recently added a new family member, adopting a handsome retired K-9 named Ranger.

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