Elizabeth Warren Drops Out – Is It Too Late for Bernie Bettors?

Custom Politics Background

  • On Thursday, March 5, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren ended her bid for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.
  • Her announcement comes only one day after Bloomberg dropped out, leaving only Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Tulsi Gabbard’s campaigns remaining.
  • Warren’s exit is expected to help Sanders consolidate the progressive vote; whether many of her supporters will show up for Bernie remains to be seen.
  • The news slightly moved Democratic nomination betting lines in favor of Bernie, but Biden is still a strong favorite at –550.

Only one day after Mike Bloomberg bowed out of the Democratic primaries, Elizabeth Warren followed suit – setting the stage for a head-to-head matchup between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

“We didn’t reach our goal, but what we have done together, what you have done, has made a lasting difference,” Warren told her team on Thursday. “It’s not the scale of the difference we wanted to make, but it matters – and the changes will have ripples for years to come.”

There was a time that Senator Warren was a favorite to win the nomination, focusing on corruption, the economy, and healthcare to build a groundswell of progressive support.

Betting Tip:
Warren’s exit has only slightly altered the forecasts from political betting sites. If you believe progressive voters will now rally behind Sanders, and/or Biden’s due for a meltdown, it’s the perfect time to get your bets in.

“Corruption has put our planet at risk. Corruption has broken our economy. And corruption is breaking our democracy,” Warren told thousands of supporters in September. “I know what’s broken, I’ve got a plan to fix it, and that’s why I’m running for president of the United States.”

Unfortunately, the Warren campaign couldn’t remain in the frontrunner position for long, mostly as a consequence of several unforced errors. There will be many voices lamenting the loss of the Democratic Party’s best chance to nominate a woman – undoubtedly blaming her lack of support on sexism – but that’s a cop-out.

Washington DC Think-Tank Politics Claim Another Victim

Sen. Warren was either the victim of terrible advice, completely lacks political instincts, or some combination of both. Her plan to slow-roll Medicare for All made progressive voters skeptical of the “policy wonk,” but it was the campaign’s attempt to smear Bernie Sanders as a misogynist – based on a private conversation over a year prior – that finished the job.

As the primaries rolled along, the Massachusetts Senator underperformed at every stop — even finishing third in her home state. With each failure, she steered harder into the neoliberal “woke” lane, appealing to a crowd that – while loud on Twitter — has shown to have zero relevance at the polls.

She also repeatedly failed to attack Joe Biden, a man whose conservative policies are responsible for Warren entering politics. Meanwhile, she had no issue undercutting her supposed “progressive ally,” and his followers every step of the way. Unwilling to commit to either side – the Democratic establishment or progressives – Liz got squeezed out of the race.

Warren Quitting Barely Budges Bernie’s Betting Odds

Betting Option To Win DNC Nomination
Joe Biden -550
Bernie Sanders +475
Hillary Clinton +1800
Michelle Obama +8000
Tulsi Gabbard +20000

The difference between Elizabeth Warren’s exit from the primaries and what Buttigieg and Klobuchar did is timing. Moderate Democrats consolidated their support behind Joe Biden during the 48-hours before Super Tuesday – this threw just enough new voters behind the former VP to win him several states that were expected to be Bernie strongholds.

Warren was responsible for the other side of that equation. Despite only entering Super Tuesday with eight pledged delegates and no path forward to the nomination (beyond a contested convention), Elizabeth stuck around to split the leftist vote with Sanders, allowing Biden to steal Minnesota, Massachusetts, Maine, and Texas.

Too Little, Too Late

The damage done to Bernie’s candidacy cannot be overstated. He was relying on a massive delegate haul on Tuesday to reach the delegate majority required to avoid a brokered convention and superdelegate input.

As a result, the odds reflect a “too little, too late” attitude towards Bernie’s chances. His odds of becoming the Democratic candidate barely budged – from +550 to +475.

When the final tallies are released from Super Tuesday, Sanders is anticipated to either tie or hold a small lead versus Biden. Still, with California and Texas out of the way and the media convincing the Democratic electorate that Joe’s momentum is overwhelming, Bernie faces an uphill battle.

First, he’ll need Warren’s supporters to get behind his progressive movement, much like the moderate candidates’ people did last Monday.

Then it’s just a matter of hitting the right Joe Biden talking point – between NAFTA, decades of attempting social security cuts, sexual harassment and corruption allegations, and his history of being in favor of every war, Sanders definitely has plenty of material. Plus, there’s the fact that Biden is clearly suffering from dramatic cognitive decline.

Who (If Anyone) Will Elizabeth Warren Endorse?

Nothing would help Bernie attract Warren’s supporters more than an endorsement from his alleged “good friend.” However, the fact that she didn’t endorse him on Thursday says it’s probably not going to happen.

Betting Option To Become Sanders’s VP Pick
Stacey Abrams +185
Nina Turner +275
Julian Castro +450
Tammy Baldwin +450
Kamala Harris +600
Tulsi Gabbard +1100
Observation:
Throughout the primaries, Warren has developed a pattern of sabotaging Sanders, without committing to attacking him outright. Assuming she handles this endorsement similarly to her approach in dealing with the misogyny allegations and complaints about the “Bernie Bros,” Liz will decline siding with either candidate until the contest is essentially concluded.

She won’t endorse Biden, because that will expose her progressive beliefs as nothing more than a fraudulent act used to piggyback off of Bernie’s 2016 grassroots movement.

Her reputation has already taken a huge hit in that regard, after reversing her policy on accepting super PAC money and continually letting Joe Biden slide on his history of screwing over Americans on behalf of financial institutions.

Betting Option To Become Biden’s VP Pick
Kamala Harris +250
Amy Klobuchar +250
Stacey Abrams +325
Elizabeth Warren +450
Pete Buttigieg +800
Catherine Cortez Masto +900

At the same time, Warren won’t risk burning bridges with the DNC establishment to back Bernie Sanders. She’s proven herself to be a brutal opportunist this election cycle and won’t want to waste a potential cabinet position in a potential Biden administration.

That said, make no mistake – remaining silent is a tacit endorsement of Joe Biden.

Bovada’s oddsmakers haven’t even posted odds on Warren becoming Sen. Sanders’s running mate. They do have her listed at +450 odds of becoming Biden’s Vice-Presidential pick, however. The smartest move the DNC could make is offering Warren the VP position, both as another public betrayal of Bernie and mitigating the damage caused by waves of Bernie’s progressive voters staying home or casting a ballot for Donald Trump in November.

Biden’s VP Picks – Elizabeth Warren (+450<)

I believe we saw evidence of Senator Warren leaning this way on Thursday night when she appeared on Rachel Maddow and spent most of the interview condemning Bernie’s enthusiastic supporters. She’d be defending and ingratiating herself to them by now if a Sanders endorsement was coming.

I’m taking Elizabeth Warren at +450 to become Joe Biden’s running mate because there’s nothing more fitting for her at this point than twisting the knife in her former ally’s back one last time on his way out of politics.
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.