Milwaukee Bucks Are Heavy Favorites to Win Finals Heading to Game 6

Milwaukee Bucks And Phoenix Suns NBA Finals

  • The Milwaukee Bucks head to Game 6 as -385 favorites to win the 2021 NBA championship.
  • Milwaukee is a five-point favorite to win Tuesday’s Game 6 at their homecourt.
  • The Bucks lead the 2021 NBA Playoffs in defensive rating at 107.4 points per 100 possessions allowed.

With three straight wins in the 2021 NBA Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks are at the precipice of glory. A win on Tuesday night will give them the franchise’s second NBA championship.

The Bucks head to Game 6, which will be played at their home court, as five-point favorites at the spread and a -196 at the Moneyline at the BetOnline App. They have also become the favorites to win the title for the first time in the series and with a twice-to-beat advantage, Milwaukee is now a -385 to win it all.

Importance of Game 5

Last Saturday’s Game 5 was one of epic proportions. It was the 30th time in the history of the NBA Finals where two teams entered the fifth game of the series with a 2-2 tie.

In the first 29 instances, the Game 5 winner went on to win the championship 22 times or 72%. Nine of those 29 teams were road teams and eight of them went on to win the NBA championship or 88.88%. Since 2000, all seven teams that won Game 5 went on to win the series or 100% which is even a more damning stat for the Suns who have seen their fortunes change drastically.

Phoenix was a -475 betting favorite to win their first ever NBA championship after winning the first two games of the 2021 NBA Finals at their home floor. Playing in his first-ever NBA Finals, Chris Paul was the -160 betting favorite to win Finals MVP in what was going to be a story book ending. But now Paul is a +600 to win that award and the Suns are a +315 to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Defense Wins Championships

Defense win championships. You can say what you want about that statement but the timeless adage has been validated again in the 2021 NBA Finals.

First it was Giannis’ block in Game 4:

Then it was Jrue Holiday’s steal in Game 5:

After ranking 9th in the league in defensive rating at 110.7 points per 100 possessions allowed during the regular season, the Bucks have tightened up the screws and are the playoff leaders in that statistical department at 107.4 points per 100 possessions allowed.

From Games 3-5, the Bucks have allowed the Suns to score an average of 107.33 points per game after giving up 118 points in both Games 1 and 2 of the series. Sure, the Suns scored 119 but they scored only 103 and 100 in the two game played at the Fiserv Forum.

There’s no question that Phoenix has the tools and the manpower to win the last two games of the series and steal the title from the Bucks. However, it won’t be easy as the Suns are in unfamiliar territory. They have never faced elimination in the previous rounds of the playoffs. In fact no team has won more than two games against them in their previous three playoff series. And the Suns have not lost three straight games since January.

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Shane Acedera / Author

Shane grew up watching the Magic & Bird rivalry but ended up rooting for Detroit's Bad Boys team in the 1990s NBA. He loves to tell sports stories and has been writing about sports since high school. When Shane isn't busy jotting down his thoughts, he's just chillin' at home with his wife Rocelle and their two dogs named Horry and Fisher. He recently added a new family member, adopting a handsome retired K-9 named Ranger.

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