Only Four Bouts at UFC Vegas 49 Have Clear Betting Favorites

The Odds UFC Makhachev Vs Green Red Background

  • Only four bouts at the UFC Vegas 49 event on Saturday night have clear betting favorites.
  • Islam Makhachev is the biggest betting favorite in the event at -900 against replacement opponent Bobby Green who is listed at +600.
  • Three bouts, led by the co-main event between Misha Cirkunov and Wellington Turman are pick;em bouts.

Islam Makhachev is a massive betting favorite to beat Bobby Green at Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 49 main event.

Makhachev is currently the -900 betting favorite to beat Green who is currently listed as the +600 bottom dog. According to Fightnomics Reed, Makhahchev is the biggest favorite on Saturday with a win probability of 87% net of the vig or house take.

But if you think that the main event will set the stage for a lopsided night of MMA action, you are wrong because only four bouts at UFC Vegas 49 have a clear betting favorite.

Green Steps in on Short Notice

Makhachev opened as -800 odds against Green at the BetOnline App, mainly because the latter took the fight on short notice. The Dagestani was supposed to fight no. 3 ranked Beneil Dariush on Saturday night in what would have likely been a title eliminator. But Dariush pulled out of the bout last week due to injury and Green, who fought just last February 13th, stepped in to take the bout on short notice and Makhachev went from a -375 against Dariush to a +800 against Green.

The next biggest favorite in the UFC Vegas 49 fight card is Ramiz Brahimaj who is currently at -350 odds against Michael Gillmore. Brahimaj has a 75% probability of winning the fight. The third clear betting favorite on Sunday’s UFC Fight Night event is Jonathan Martinez who at -250 against Alejandro Perez, has a 68% win probability.

The only other fighter in the UFC Vegas 49 event with odds better than 2/1 and classified as the clear favorite is Ignacio Bahamondes who is currently listed at -225 against Zhu Rong. According to the Fightnomics Reed data, Bahamondes has a 67% win probability versus Zhu.

Misha Cirkunov vs Wellington Turman

Like the main event, the co-headliner is a hastily put up bout. Misha Cirkunov was supposed to fight Makhmud Muradov but the latter suffered a hand injury and was replaced by Wellington Turman. Cirkunov went from a +210 underdog against Muradov to a -190 favorite against Turman. Right now, that bout has turned into a pick’em with Cirkunov currently at -125 and Turman at even money odds or a 51% vs 49% probability.y

Fares Ziam is also just a -125 odds on favorite to defeat Terrance McKinney who is also priced at +100. At those odds, Ziam only has an implied win probability of 52% and McKinney at 48%. Likewise, Carlos Hernandez at -138 against Victor Altamirano’s +110 odds translates to a 53% vs 47% win probability.

Jinh Yu Frey only has a win probability of 63% at -175 odds against Hannah Goldy who is currently priced at +150. Also listed at -175 are Gregory Rodrigues and Ji Yeon Kim who are fighting Armen Petrosyan and Priscila Cachoeira who are both listed at +150. Josiane Nunes at -200 has a 63% chance of winning, the highest among the bouts with no clear favorite.

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Shane Acedera / Author

Shane grew up watching the Magic & Bird rivalry but ended up rooting for Detroit's Bad Boys team in the 1990s NBA. He loves to tell sports stories and has been writing about sports since high school. When Shane isn't busy jotting down his thoughts, he's just chillin' at home with his wife Rocelle and their two dogs named Horry and Fisher. He recently added a new family member, adopting a handsome retired K-9 named Ranger.

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