Alabama’s Tagovailoa Could Lose Millions. Who Will Be No. 1 Overall Pick in 2020 NFL Draft?

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa Looking to the Side - NFL Draft Logo

  • Tua Tagovailoa is at risk of losing millions of dollars due to his dislocated hip
  • The Crimson Tide QB did not have loss-of-value insurance to protect his value
  • Tagovailoa is currently listed sixth in the odds to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft

If Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa decides to enter the 2020 NFL Draft, he’s at risk of losing millions of dollars, and this due to his season-ending hip injury that he would recently undergo surgery for — but he could have protected himself.

According to reports, Tagovailoa did not obtain loss-of-value protect what he may be worth if he was a top pick in the draft. If he doesn’t get picked at the top of the order and was at risk of losing contract value as a result, he actually would have been protected with the insurance. Instead, since he doesn’t have it, Tagovailoa can still lose millions of dollars if he does fall in the draft. He would have still gotten the hefty contract value due to his preseason ranking as a No. 1 pick if he did have it, instead, he can lose all of that revenue.

If a serious injury or illness were to occur, loss-of-value insurance protects the student-athlete and the amount of money that they were worth before the injury/illness took place. There are different thresholds, but the insurance can cover 60% of the contract value of a top draft pick, among other rookie deals. All the eligibility and numbers all depend on the projected draft position of a student-athlete, and the coverage is anywhere between $1 million to $10 million.

The insurance policy covers what the difference is with the policy threshold and the complete contract value.

Let’s say the student-athlete value is projected at $10 million. According to the NCAA and the insurance policy, after the player would suffer an injury or illness, they would be offered $5 million for their actual contract to help cover their losses. On top of that, they receive an additional $1 million in a loss-of-value benefit to up it to $6 million — that would meet the 60% threshold.

For the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, loss-of-value insurance would cover a total of $21.1 million in losses (60%) — as previously mentioned, that’s what Tagovailoa was projected to be back in preseason. When you analyze the scale from last year, that would be the total of a student-athlete who fell to the eighth spot in the draft.

In Tagovailoa’s defense, he wasn’t offered loss-of-value insurance from neither the NCAA nor the University of Alabama. With the NCAA, they don’t offer it because “the coverage has not been shown to consistently benefit student-athletes who file a claim.” With Alabama, their insurance plan doesn’t offer a loss-of-value policy, but they do allow high-profile players to buy it independently.

So, with everything going on with Tagovailoa’s hip injury, will a Cincinnati Bengals or Miami Dolphins risk their top pick on the quarterback if he decides to declare? Or will he drop in the draft and suffer lost millions as a result? Who will ultimately be the top selection in next year’s draft?

Betting Odds to Be the First Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft

  • Joe Burrow | -300
  • Chase Young | +200
  • Andrew Thomas | +600
  • Justin Herbert | +1500
  • Jake Fromm | +1500
  • Tua Tagovailoa | +1800

Favorites to Be Selected the No. 1 Overall Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft

Joe Burrow | LSU Tigers

Joe Burrow has been having an absolutely incredible season, and at the moment, he’s certainly got to be your top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft if you’re the Cincinnati Bengals — the team who currently holds the top pick in next year’s draft. Burrow has put up amazing numbers in 2019, throwing for 4,014 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, and he’s also made minimal mistakes with just six interceptions. On top of that, he also has the third best QBR in the nation at 93.0. If everything holds and Cincinnati passes on Burrow, it would be shocking, and dumb.

Chase Young | Ohio State Buckeyes

Despite sitting a few games due to an NCAA violation, this because of accepting a loan, Chase Young has put up great numbers for Ohio State this season to put him second in the betting odds. This season, Young has compiled 27 solo tackles, 16.5 sacks and he’s also added seven forced fumbles to his tally. With the Cincinnati Bengals currently holding the top pick and needing a QB, they’ll pass on Young, but he may be able to grab the No. 2 position with the Washington Redskins there and already having Dwayne Haskins. Young may be headed to DC.

Andrew Thomas | Georgia Bulldogs

Here’s where things get tricky in terms of betting. Even though the Washington Redskins could easily select Chase Young with their No. 2 overall pick, they could also take Andrew Thomas with no problem, someone who would significantly strengthen their offensive line. I wouldn’t blame the Redskins for taking Thomas, but if I were Washington, I would personally improve the defensive side of the ball as much as possible. At the end of the day, defense wins championships. Plus, Young’s numbers are too great to pass up. Take Young in that bet.

Justin Herbert | Oregon Ducks

A piece of advice: Keep your money away from Justin Herbert. Completely ignore the odds when it comes to the Oregon Duck, he’s quite overvalued here. The way I’m seeing it, I could potentially see Herbert falling all the way down to No. 12 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Check out the numbers for yourself. They’re not the flashiest, especially compared to Joe Burrow. In total this season, Herbert has put up 2,966 passing yards with 30 touchdowns and five interceptions — his 75.8 QB is ranked 21st. As you see, they’re hardly superior numbers.


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Andrew Powell / Author

Andrew Powell has been working with The Sports Geek since November 2018 providing analysis and predictions in both the realms of sports and politics. Studying journalism through the University of Michigan, Powell's experience in sports includes tenures at mainstream newspapers The Williamsport Sun-Gazette and The Lock Haven Express, and he would also be affiliated with FOX Sports Radio 1340 AM in Hopewell, Virginia. In politics, it would include a stint with Mad World News and multiple with the Republican Party. From the Super Bowl to The Kentucky Derby to President Donald Trump's hair, Powell has you covered at The Sports Geek.

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