Top Five Favorites Cover Spread in NFL Week 13

NFL Favorite Teams for Week 13

  • Rams blitz the spread in 37-7 pasting of Jacksonville
  • Falcons’ pick-six keeps spread interesting, but Buccaneers cover
  • Murray, Hopkins return as Cardinals accentuate cover over Bears

Week 13 in the NFL proved the old adage that it is definitely “better to give than receive” as the lengthy point spreads all covered in games where the favorite had playoff implications.

Consequently, four of the five underdogs were likely not heading anywhere as only the Denver Broncos came into the afternoon with potential to throw themselves into the playoff race as Denver can achieve a wild card spot in the AFC.

As the overall favorites were 7-5 on Sunday, only the Eagles’ (-6.5) grounding of the Jets, 33-18, and the Dolphins (-3.5) swimming past the New York Giants, 20-9, were the only teams to cover other than the top five favorites.

Through 13 weeks:

The road teams have covered the spread 56.3 percent of the time while the home teams are at a 43.7 percent clip. The favorites post at 86-106-1 (44.8%) while the underdogs have covered 55.2 percent of the games.

Also, road favorites have a 42-40 record (51.2%) while the home underdogs net a 48.8 percent clip. The road underdogs have been a force with a 66-44-1 mark (60%) while the home favorites are just 40 percent.

Rams Fashioned Highest Cover

The Los Angeles Rams needed a reboot and with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming to town at 2-9 and with a rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawerence, the stage was set.

The Rams came in as a 14-point favorite and quarterback Matt Stafford regained some of his footing as well in passing for 298 yards and three touchdowns as the Rams routed the Jaguars, 37-7.

Los Angeles used three Matt Gay field goals and a touchdown run by Sony Michel to take a 16-7 halftime lead. Stafford threw the three TD tosses in the second half and his last was to Odell Beckham, Jr., for his first touchdown as a Ram.

Money came in on Los Angeles as the Rams were installed as a 12.5-point favorite on Nov. 24. The line moved one point between 6:26 a.m. yesterday and 12:25 p.m. PST.

Los Angeles is now 5-7 ATS for the season and the Rams have a 3-3 record against the number at Sofi Stadium.

Buccaneers Didn’t Disappoint

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady threw for 368 yards and four touchdowns and he found Chris Godwin 15 times to set a Buccaneers receptions record. Tampa Bay defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 30-17, to complete the season sweep as Godwin had 143 yards while Rob Gronkowski caught two touchdown passes.

Tampa Bay was an 11.5-point favorite, but just before halftime, Brady was attempting to set up a screen pass which was intercepted by Marlon Davidson and returned three yards for a touchdown. This cut Tampa Bay’s lead to 20-17 and it kept bettors interested all afternoon.

Atlanta drove to the Tampa Bay 7-yard line late in the game and the Bucs thwarted a Falcons touchdown which would have given Atlanta the cover as a home underdog.

The spread started with Tampa Bay (-9.5) on Nov. 24, but bettors wasted little time putting money on the Buccaneers which drove the line up two points in five days on Bovada.

The Buccaneers even their record at 6-6 ATS as they have covered their last three games.

Colts Kick Texans, Blow Away the Betting Line

It’s almost a bank robbery every week when the Houston Texans betting lines are released as they have failed to cover in five of their last seven while Indianapolis easily covered the 10-points in a 31-0 beat down yesterday.

It was Jonathan Taylor once again who paced the Colts as he rushed 32 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns and the defense held Houston to only 141 yards and 2.8 yards per play.

The Texans punted six times, turned the ball over on their first two possessions and Indianapolis held them on downs on three occasions.

Indy has won four of its last five games and the Colts have covered the number in three of those.

Cardinals Eclipse Line For Road Cover in Chicago

Arizona had quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins back from injury yesterday as Murray threw two touchdown passes and also ran for two in the Cardinals’ 33-22 win over the Bears air Soldier Field.

The Cardinals covered the 8.5 points as the cover looked like a real possibility early in the game after Murray hit Hopkins on a 20-yard touchdown pass and then ran for a 9-yard score to give Arizona a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter.

With Arizona leading 33-14 in the fourth quarter, Bears QB Andy Dalton, who was intercepted four times on the afternoon, found Jakeem Grant, Sr. on an 8-yard TD toss as he also hit Jimmy Graham for the two-pointer conversion.

The Cardinals bled the clock down to 10 seconds when the Bears took over, so there was no threat of the backdoor cover in play.

The betting line stayed at Cardinals (-7.5) most of the week, but late money came in on the Cardinals which stretched it to (-8) and eventually (-8.5) in come places yesterday morning.

The Cardinals are a solid pick ATS with a 9-3 record as they became the first team in the NFL to 10 wins after besting the Bears, who fell to 4-8 overall and 4-8 vs. the number.

Chiefs Lasso Broncos and Cover the (-8.5) as Well

Kansas City’s defense has resurrected in the last five games as the Chiefs have now won five in a row and reassumed the AFC West lead in rendering the Denver Broncos a 22-9 loss at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday evening.

The Chiefs covered the (-8.5) as they used three Harrison Butler field goals and took a 22-3 lead on a 75-yard interception return by Daniel Sorenson with 9:42 remaining in the game.

This line was set at Chiefs (-9.5) when it opened on Nov. 24; however, throughout the next week bettors were on Kansas City before Denver consistently grabbed betting attention which drove the line back to (-8.5) as it was as high as (-10) in some places last week.

Kansas City is 3-3 ATS in its last six games, but the Chiefs have covered in the last three outings. The Broncos are 3-2 SU in their last five games but have failed to cover the number in two of their last three outings.

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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

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