- Steyer, Gabbard listed as +250 co-favorites to be the next candidate to drop out of the race
- Bennet, Yang, Patrick dropped out of the race after the New Hampshire primary
- Biden (+2000) and Warren (+5000) have seen odds to secure Democratic nomination nosedive
Now that actual votes are being cast, it’s safe to say the 2020 presidential election is in full swing. We’re in the midst of primary season. The good people of Iowa and New Hampshire have already cast their votes with regard to the Democratic Party’s nominee for president. Nevada and South Carolina are next, while 13 more states will do the same on “Super Tuesday,” which is slated for March 3.
A trio of fringe candidates dropped out of the race immediately following the New Hampshire primary earlier this week. Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet both called it quits on the night of the primary, while Deval Patrick pulled out of the race the very next day.
It’s safe to say the field of contenders will continue to thin in the weeks and months to come. While we are still extremely early in the process, the early-state results do matter. Candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden, who were seen as frontrunners to secure the nomination just a few months ago, are already finding themselves on thin ice.
BetOnline has been keeping tabs on the 2020 election for months. While betting on who will ultimately win the Democratic nomination has been a hot topic, you can now bet on which candidate will be the next to throw in the towel.
Odds on Which Candidate Will Drop Out Next
|Candidate||Odds To Drop Out at BetOnline|
As you can see, Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard are on the ropes. Neither candidate came away with a single delegate in the New Hampshire primary earlier this week. Steyer racked up just 3.6 percent of the vote, while Gabbard finished with 3.3 percent. The two candidates combined for fewer total votes (20,382) than fourth-place finisher Joe Biden (24,921).
Candidates like Yang and Bennet had claimed that they would like to stick around until Super Tuesday, but most of the candidates that have already left the race have been forced to do so because of a lack of campaign funds. That figures to be much more of an issue for Gabbard than for Steyer. Gabbard hasn’t polled well enough to qualify for any recent debate, while Steyer, a billionaire, is essentially funding his own campaign.
Steyer is also actually polling pretty well in South Carolina, while Tulsi is still on the fringes. As of this writing, Steyer is actually polling third in South Carolina with about 10 percent. That puts him a ways behind Biden (24.4 percent) and Bernie Sanders (18.2 percent), but ahead of Mike Bloomberg (9.9 percent), Pete Buttigieg (7.8 percent), Warren (6.9 percent) and Amy Klobuchar (3.4 percent). Gabbard is sitting at just 1.8 percent.
I think Steyer will make it through the South Carolina primary on February 29. I don’t think Gabbard will make it that far.
Biden and Warren Trending Downward
As mentioned, Biden and Warren have both been in a downward spiral for quite some time. Biden has been the betting favorite to win the party’s nomination since announcing his candidacy last April, but dismal fourth-place finishes in both Iowa and New Hampshire have many wondering whether the former vice president will even make it to Super Tuesday.
Biden has remained adamant that he’s not discouraged by the early results, but he’s one of the few. Warren was the frontrunner for the nomination as recently as last October, but she has since been lapped in the progressive camp of the party by Bernie Sanders. She was also trounced in New Hampshire by Klobuchar, who has seen a surge over the past couple of weeks.
Biden has fallen all the way to +900 to become the Democratic nominee, while Warren has dipped to +2000. Biden’s odds of winning the nomination are at +2500, while Warren is now at +5000. I don’t think either will be the next to drop out, but it seems to be only a matter of time until both are on the outside looking in at the 2020 race for the White House.
While Klobuchar finished a respectable third in New Hampshire, it remains to be seen whether the Minnesota Senator has the ground game to compete in the long run. She and Buttigieg have also both faced serious questions about whether they can appeal to non-white voters. About 90 percent of the populations in Iowa and New Hampshire are white, which is at least part of why both fared well in the first couple of states.
Buttigieg is currently leading all candidates in delegates after essentially tying with Sanders for first place in the Iowa caucus. I think Mayor Pete has more staying power in this race than Klobuchar as a result, but time will tell.
At this point, Sanders and Bloomberg look like the betting frontrunners. This despite the fact that Bloomberg hasn’t even been on the ballot in either Iowa or New Hampshire. The former New York City Mayor has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on paid advertisements in order to pump up his campaign. Bloomberg has aspirations of making his dent in the race on Super Tuesday.
It comes as no surprise that Sanders (+140), Bloomberg (+275) and Buttigieg (+600) are the favorites to win the Democratic nomination at this point. It’s safe to assume all 3 will be in the race for the long haul as more and more start to withdraw from the presidential race.