- UK bettor wagers over $1 million on Joe Biden to win 2020 US presidential election
- Winning bet would pay out around $700,000 in winnings
- Betfair gives Biden a 66 percent chance to beat Donald Trump on October 3
Election Day is less than 24 hours away. Political betting sites have been taking plenty of wagers on both Donald Trump and Joe Biden to win the 2020 US presidential election. While the odds have favored Biden for quite some time, many bettors are confident in Trump’s chances after he pulled off his memorable upset win less than four years ago.
While Democrats may be cautiously optimistic about Biden’s chances of winning, you won’t hear many within the party acting overly confident. If only everyone had the amount of confidence that one British bettor has in the Democratic candidate’s odds of winning. One bettor in the United Kingdom placed a bet worth £1 million ($1.29 million) on Biden to win at Betfair.
The bettor stands to earn about $700,000 in profit if Biden winds up winning the election.
Odds Favor Biden
UK-based bettors are allowed to place real money bets on American elections, even if they are banned in the United States. Betfair says over $337 million worth of bets have been placed in the lead-up to the election, which makes it the most heavily-wagered political event in history.
Betfair says that $170 million worth of bets have come in on Biden, with another $156 million coming in on Trump. Betfair Exchange reports that Biden has a 66 percent chance of winning the election, with Trump down at 35 percent. Oddschecker, which aggregates data from a variety of bookmakers, has Biden with a 65.2 percent chance to win compared to 34.78 percent for Trump.
Of course, polls and oddsmakers have different opinions heading into Election Day. FiveThirtyEight, for example, gives Biden between an 89 percent and 91 percent chance of emerging victorious on November 3. For comparison, Hillary Clinton entered Election Day with a 72 percent chance to win, with Trump down at 28 percent.
While Clinton was a massive favorite, Biden will enter the final day of voting with even better chances to win. Biden has maintained a steady lead in recent polls conducted in a number of important battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
Underdog Trump Still Attracting Most Bets
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek, “Donald Trump’s odds have slightly improved this weekend, but that has not deterred one punter from betting £1 million on Joe Biden to win. The bet is the biggest political bet of all-time on Betfair Exchange, and returns a handsome £1,540,000 if Biden wins the keys to the White House.”
Per Betfair election expert Paul Krishnamurty, a number of big-money bets have recently come in on Biden due in no small part to the former vice president’s excellent polling trends. Krishnamurty said, “That’s what we always see at the end of an election where the people get more confident about the market and the big hitters enter.”
While Biden’s odds are more favorable, Trump has actually attracted most of the betting activity ahead of the election, according to ot Oddschecker. It seems as though many political bettors are banking on the 2020 election seeing a similar outcome to the 2016 version. Despite facing plus-money odds, Trump attracted better than 60 percent of the wagers ahead of the 2016 election, per Oddschecker.
Despite Trump attracting more overall activity, Biden is the candidate to have attracted the biggest individual bets. A Betfair spokesperson said, “Whilst more money has been bet on Donald Trump, it could be telling that the 10 biggest stakes are all on Joe Biden.”