**URGENT TIMING ** It is currently Sunday night and Week 7 Sunday games have just concluded. I’m getting my 2012 NFL Week 8 picks against the spread out early. I apologize for the sloppy nature of this post but there are some openers that are important to jump on early for maximum value. As always I recommend those following my picks stay tuned the TheSportsGeek each week in order to make bets on my free picks as early as possible. With that said let me jump straight to the Week 8 bets all of which I just placed moments ago.
Mixed Week 7 and Week 8 Teaser @ 5Dimes
My first free pick is to use the Monday night game from Week 7 Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears in a teaser on next week’s games. To explain quickly we’re going to make a 6 point “ties win” teaser at 5Dimes. I’ve mentioned already earlier this season that I’m on 5Dimes rewards package #5 the point mover advantage. This gives me better teaser odds, in this case 2-team 6-point “ties win” at -105.
The first selection is to tease the Bears -0.5 for the Week 7 Monday night football game. Quickly to explain why in a 2-team teaser at -105 each team needs to cover 71.6% of the time to average break even. When I remove the vig from the moneylines on this game I see the market is giving the Bears a 71.8% chance of winning. So in this case we have slight positive expected value taking the Bears.
The second selection is a teasing the Tennessee Titans in their Week 8 game against the Colts from -3 to +3. Here because ties win we’re actually getting +3.5 though our ticket reads +3. The reason for this play is the Titans are closer to -3.5 than -3 on the opener at the professional betting sites. 5Dimes is listing them at -3 -130. Seeing as the -130 doesn’t matter in teaser we’re getting an extra half point. The reason basic strategy teasers are profitable is because they cross the two most common margins of victory 3 & 7. In this case we’re crossing the most common margin of victory (3) twice. This is a +EV teaser selection as well. Two +EV selections added together equals a profitable play.
Free Pick #1: 6-point ties win teaser @ www.5dimes.eu Bears -0.5 / Titans +3 (ties win).
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
This line opened for some odd reason at -1 and I was lucky to get it early. There’s not too much time to write here as this is an urgent play to get on. Opening at -1 this line was quickly bet to -2.5 and is getting much closer to -3. It’s important to get on this one early by taking San Diego Chargers -2.5 -115 @ www.5dimes.eu. The reason why is the Chargers are coming off a tough loss, where they committed second half meltdown. Teams generally bounce back strong following such scenarios. The bigger reason (which is huge) is this will have been two weeks ago come game time. The Chargers had a bye in Week 7 and should be well prepared for this matchup against the Browns who are one of the weakest teams in the league. This should have always been a -3 point spread. If you can get in early at -2.5 -115 or better this is wise.
Free Pick #2: Chargers -2.5 -115
3-team 6.5 point “ties win” teaser at 5Dimes
My final pick is one I like the best this week and doesn’t require as much stake. For reason we’re in a hurry here the pick is:
Free Pick #3: Tampa Bay Buccs +14 (ties win) Saints +14 (ties win), and 49ers (-1) ties win. My bet is to risk 0.75 units to win 1.17 units placing this at www.5dimes.eu. Again this is a 3-team 6.5-point “ties win” teaser. I’ll go ahead and give a quick run down here on each leg.
The Buccs are +6.5 everywhere else. Here we’re crossing common margins of victory 7, 10 and 14. The Buccs are playing the Vikings who are perhaps one of the most overrated teams in the league. The Buccs are far from being one of the better teams in the league but after watching their performance this week with so many failed opportunities the market is going to be even lower on them. Having bet against the Buccs in week 6 and lost and then bet on them in Week 7 and lost again for my only two losses each week, I’m a bit hesitant. However the math doesn’t lie, the Buccs are a solid pick here. This is due to being an off-market price and because the game has a lower than average over/under betting total.
Our second selection, the Saints are playing the Denver Broncos on a nationally televised Sunday night game. It doesn’t get much better than Drew Brees vs Peyton Manning in a Sunday Night Shootout. Quickly this is another off market price as the Saints are +6.5 at most sites and even closer to +6 at some. The Broncos are prone to mistakes. What we have going against us is the Broncos are coming off a bye week. However, their team is also coming off that second half miracle comeback which could negate some of the effects. The Saints have too high powered of an offense and the Broncos are too mistake/turnover prone to not take advantage of this off market price.
The final pick I could of went either way due to the betting total. In this game the San Francisco 49ers are playing the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers played Week 7 on Thursday night and this is a Monday night game. That’s practically coming off a bye week with extra time added. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the league and one of the best coached teams. They should benefit more than an average amount from the added time to prepare. Also the market is not very high on them due to being blown out by the Giants then a tough struggle against the Seahawks in a game they did win. Everyone loves having action on the Monday night game and if we win our other two teaser selections this gives us that. However the biggest reason I added them to this teaser is points are at a premium in this game. This has the lowest over/under betting total of any Week 8 game on the board, making the tease to -1 (ties win) which is the same as PK is a very solid play.
Once again I apologize for the bit sloppy nature of this post, but there was enough value on the openers I felt it was best to rush this and get it right out to you. Best of luck betting 2012 NFL Week 8 and I’ll be back again in 7-10 days to give my Week 9 free picks and predictions.