The 2012 NFL Season heads to week 10. Coming off our first 3-0 week of the season I’m back with free picks and predictions. The first thing to mention is I’m making this post on Thursday night which is the latest I’ve been with my free picks thus far this season. That’s not at all due laziness or being busy. I’ve been watching the board like a hawk all week hoping to spot the most value. With things now opened up a bit more at US facing sportsbooks, I’ve found three good picks all at Bovada. The first is a 3-team 10-point teaser and the other two are point spread bets.
3-Team 10 Point Teaser
This week is a rare case where we have a three teams favored by 11 to 12.5 points. We’re going to take advantage of this by making a bet at www.bovada.lv who offers 3-team 10-point teasers @ -110 (note: ties lose on these). The play is teasing New England Patriots -11 to -1, San Francisco 49ers -11.5 to -1.5 and Pittsburgh Steelers -12.5 to -2.5 risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
To explain the reason for this pick at -110 wagers need to win 52.38% of the time to average break even. As this play involves three teams, I calculate the cubed root of 0.5238 is 0.806. This tells us that if each individual team covers their teased spread 80.6% of the time we’ll achieve the 52.38% overall required win rate. There’s not enough historical data to determine how often big favorites win by 1 or 2 (sample is too small). My rough figure however is about 1% for each number. So from here I see the no-vig money lines on the relevant teams are: Patriots (82.60%), 49ers (82.1%), Steelers (82.1%). Adjusting for the spreads I get Patriots -1.5 (81.60%), 49ers (81.1%) -1.5, Steelers -2.5 (80.1%). Notice we have a considerable edge on the first two and a slight disadvantage on the third. When all combined together, this is a +EV teaser bet.
Free Pick #1: Teaser of Patriots -1 / 49ers -1.5 / Steelers -2.5 @ Bovada risk 1.1 to win 1.0.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
This is a great division match up with major playoff implications. The New Orleans Saints were the #3 favorites coming into the season but their 0-4 start had them essentially written off. However they won 3 of their next four including road wins in San Diego and Philadelphia and are now 3-5 on the season. While that’s not great and they do have a tough schedule ahead, they are a live dog with a chance of squeaking out a wild card spot, but to do so they near must win this game. On the other side the Falcons started well in the preseason ratings and haven’t disappointed. They are now 8-0 on the season; the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL.
The stats actually surprisingly favor the Saints in this match. They lead the Falcons in near all offensive categories head to head. When matching the two up, the Saints do give up more yards per play, but it is relatively close. Both teams have great momentum but there are two factors that make me lean Saints. The first is the rejuvenated home crowd as this game is in New Orleans. The second is Bovada has an off market price available. While others have Saints closer to +2, www.bovada.lv is offering +3 -125 which is too tempting to pass up.
Free Pick #2: Saints +3 -125 @ Bovada. Risk 1.25 to win 1.0.
Houston Texans +1 @ Chicago Bears -1
This is a huge match between the league’s two 7-1 teams. I could fill this up with a bunch of details but this game is a simple picks. The Texans were predicted to be one of the best teams in the league with a regular season win total of 10.5 wins predicted. The Bears were selling at over/under 7.5 and were small long shot for even wild card. Although some luck has gone their way, most of the Bears’ success is in fact due to how incredible they are playing and how amazing their defense has been in creating turnovers. Handicapping this game it is a statistical deadlock, they are as even as even can be found before looking at turnovers and home field advantage. The Bears get a strong edge there and in our opinion should be a 3.5 point favorite in this match. -1 is well off and gives us a third wager at www.bovada.lv this week.
Free Pick #3: Bears -1 -110 @ www.bovada.lv Risk 1.1 to win 1.