The 2012 NFL Season heads to week 11 and the big story is QB injuries. Last week starting quarterbacks Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles), Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers) and Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) suffered concussions and QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) suffered a very serious shoulder injury. This shakes thing up a bit in the playoff races and plays a slight roll in my week 11 free picks and predictions covered in this post. Let me get to my week 11 plays where I have a surprising 5 wagers to share.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
This is the Monday night game and no line is out yet for reason both starting QBs are injured. Understand Jay Cutler has had concussions before and no matter what the injury reports might say it is highly unlikely he plays this week. With Alex Smith there is a much better chance he does start for the 49ers. No matter which quarterback start for either team, we’re very likely betting the under on this match. Once the lines come out so long as the total is at least 36 take the under at -110 or better.
Free Pick #1: Bears/49ers UNDER the posted total (so long as total is at least 36)
2-Team 6.5 Point Teaser
To mention again at www.5dimes.eu players can elect the one time option to change from rewards package #1 reduced juice to reward package #5 Point Mover Special Reward Program. This can be done via their website chat support and gives better odds on teasers. In this case I’m going to use a 2-team 6.5 “ties-win” teaser which has -115 odds.
The play is to tease the Washington Redskins -3.5 to +3 “ties win” and to tease the Baltimore Ravens -3.5 to +3 “ties win”. This play has us fading both teams playing with an injured QB. In the Steelers case the injuries run far deeper as quite a few players on that team are banged up. On the Eagles side Michael Vick might not even be as injured as the reports let on, but the Eagles are struggling none the less. Besides just fading these teams this play also works out mathematically.
The no-vig win probability on the Redskins is 64% and on the Raven 63%. Favorites of -3 to -4 historically have lost by 1, 2 or 3 points combined 10.7% of the time. As ties win effectively have each team +3.5. Adding these together we get Redskins +3.5 (74.7%) and Ravens +3.5 (73.7%) as expected cover probabilities. For 2-team -115 teasers each team needs cover 73.1% of the time break even. Each of our expected probabilities exceeds that so this is a +EV bet.
Free Pick #2: Redskins +3 / Ravens +3 ties win at 5Dimes.
2-Team 6-Point Teaser
My third wager this week needs no explanation as it is simply a basic strategy teaser. The play is a 2-team 6-point ties win teaser @ -110. We’re going teaser Denver Broncos -8 to -2 and Dallas Cowboys -8 to -2 at www.bovada.lv.
Free Pick #3: Cowboys -1.5 / Broncos -1.5 @ Bovada
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
My final picks this week is purely handicapping. When I first seen the line comes out as Patriots -9.5 I assumed strongly this was for the purpose of blocking teasers. However later in the week the line stuck and it is even possible to buy the Colts to +10.5 here at a decent price.
Quickly the reason for this play is simple. Ignoring all the intangibles I handicap this one as Patriots -7.5 about 50% exact. Using www.betonline.ag I can snag +10.5 -135 by purchasing two half points at 10 cents each. I have a 57.5% implied probability and I calculate the true probability before intangibles to be exactly the same. When the considering the intangibles the Colts get the nod. They played last week on Thursday night in a game they were up early and won with ease. The added time prepare is a considerable advantage.
Free Pick #4: Colts +10.5 -135 @ BetOnline