The 2012 Season heads to week 5 and I’m back with three more free betting picks. To first cover last week’s results we went 2-1 for the third time this season. The only pick we lost was an underdog so +1, +1 and -1 gave us 1.0 unit of profit. Looking to build on this I have three +EV bets already made for week #5 I’m sharing in this post which gives us action on seven games.
Green Bay Packer @ Indianapolis Colts
This is one the value bets for Week 5, but it certainly won’t be the most popular pick my readers will enjoy making. The Colts are one of the bottom teams in the league, while Packers were neck and neck with the Patriots in the preseason power rankings for the top spot. There are a few factors here however, the casual fan might not consider. First the Green Bay Packers have been on an emotional rollercoaster. They were robbed two weeks ago in what was probably the worst officiated game in NFL history before the worst call in NFL history ended the game, robbing them of the win. Last week another horrible call fell just short of doing the same, but they managed to escape with the victory in a hard fought game.
A main factor here is Packers not only have been through a lot emotionally, but also physically. The groin injury of Greg Jennings is a top concern. But on the other side the Colts, as a poor of a team as they are, they’re coming off their bye week which given them a ton of time to prepare. I like the Colts +7 -105 @ www.bovada.lv. If you’ve never had an account at Bovada before you’ll be welcomed with a 50% up to $250 initial deposit match in the form of free play credits. This is my sole point-spread bet this week the rest are teasers. Again my pick is risk 1.05 to win 1.0 on Colts +7.5 at Bovada.
NFL Week 5 Top Teaser Bet
This week I have two teaser plays. The one I’ll spend the most time explaining is the better one, and also breaks a cardinal rule of teaser betting. That rules is actually a myth but it states NEVER cross the 0 in teasers. The reason is because going from -1 to +1 waist 2 points and has very little value. As is the case about every other “NEVER rule” that is popular on betting forums, there are exception many posters don’t know about and this week one of them.
The specific play is a 3-team 6-point “ties win” teaser @ 5Dimes. As mentioned in previous posts, before this season started I elected my one time option to change from 5Dimes reduced juice to rewards option #5 which gives better odds on teasers and buying points. So in this case the teaser pays +172. When we stake 1 to win 1.72 our return is 2.72 (1 stake + 1.72 win). So here I use risk/return=implied probability to tell me this teaser needs to win 36.76% of the time to break even. Because there are 3 legs we take the cubed root of 0.3676 and this tells me each individual team needs to win 71.6% of the time to average breakeven.
The plays I’m making in this teaser are
Saints -3 to +3 ties win
Bengals -3 to +3 ties win
Steelers -3 to +3 ties win
I’ll show you the math for one leg. The Saints game has a moneyline of Saints -185 / Chargers +160. Using the same risk/return=implied probability I can see -185 is 1.85/2.85= 64.9% and +160 is 1/2.6= 38.5%. The probabilities total 103.4%. The reason they are more than 100% is because of the vig. To remove it, just divide. 64.9%/103.4%= 62.8% which is how often the oddsmakers have the Saints winning with no point spread involved. I happen to know the push rates are +1 (2.3%), +2 (1.8%) and +3 (8.7%). When I add these to 62.8% I get Saints +3.5 having a 75.6% chance of winning. Remember our ticket reads +3, but because ties win we’re +3.5.
I did the same math and found Bengals +3.5 is 74.7% and Steelers 74.0%. Keep in mind I only need these to win 71.6% of the time each to average break even. This is a huge edge so we’re going to risk a full 1 unit to win 1.72 units on the bet.
Another Week 5 NFL Teaser
I won’t go through the math as I’ve just shared the method, but my final week 5 betting pick is a 3-team 7-point “ties win” teaser at www.5dimes.eu. This one here takes advantage of 5Dimes favorable teaser odds and also that these are all off-market-prices. For example there’s teams +8.5 listed at +10, etc. that give us essentially more points than if we teased this elsewhere. This bet pay +142 and we’re risking 1 to win 1.42. The picks are:
Cardinals +0 to +7 ties win
Browns +10 to +17 ties win
Chiefs +7 to +14 ties win
2102 Free Picks Results
To keep things properly tracked/disclosed season record to dates are as follows:
Week 1: 2-1 for +0.5 Units
Week 2: 2-1 for +1.0 Units
Week 3: 0-3 for -3.8 units
week 4: 2-1 for +1.0 Units
YTD: 6-6 for -1.3 units
That’s all for now guy. Three +EV picks this week with our money in good and wait for week 5 to play out hoping positive variance is on our side. Be sure check back next week for 2012 NFL Week 6 free picks.