49ers vs. Chiefs NFL Pick – Week 3

The Pat Mahomes show will put on a performance at Arrowhead for the first time this season, as the Chiefs play host to Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. Mahomes has made himself comfortable as the starting quarterback in KC. Former starter, Alex Smith, wasn’t shown the love with the Chiefs any longer, but it was for good reason. The guy waiting in the wings is the future. I can’t count the amount of times Mahomes made me money in college.

Texas Tech’s defense was historically awful, so their games were auto-over mode. The Red Raiders don’t have a defense now, but they were embarrassingly bad back then. Mahomes could have probably made it work to get Texas Tech to a decent bowl game with their current defense. The Chiefs have holes on defense in 2018, no doubt about it. Though Mahomes is certainly used to playing with bad defenses. At least this unit moves their legs, Texas Tech was about as useful as a group of pylons on the field. Pylons or garbage cans, whichever analogy works best for you.

Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense made the Steelers look like they were standing still last week. He didn’t care that it was on the road at Heinz Field, a team that the Chiefs have typically struggled against. Mahomes has stepped right in and reinvented the Chiefs and turned this team into a fly-high offense. No, the Steelers do not have the best defense, but nevertheless, Mahomes has been doing this from high school, college, and now the NFL in every start that he’s bad. The Chiefs opened the season up by a score of 38-28 over the Chargers, and then 42-37 the next week. Mahomes and company turn their attention to the 49ers, who managed to escape with a win against the Lions in Week 2.

It looked like the Lions were going to be set-up beautifully to take the lead late after an interception thrown by Garoppolo. It nearly went for a pick-6, but the ball was brought back to around the 10-yard line. A defensive holding call that wasn’t even around the play brought it back, and the 49ers were able to kill the clock. That’s a mulligan for Garoppolo, as he didn’t make a good play at all there. He will have to limit the mistakes with Mahomes on the other side Sunday afternoon. Head below for our free 49ers vs. Chiefs pick.

San Francisco 49ers vs. K.C. Chiefs NFL Week 3 Betting Odds:

49ers +6.5(-115)
vs. Chiefs -6.5(-105)

Over 55(-115)
Under 55(-105)

Betting odds provided by Sportsbetting.ag

49ers vs. Chiefs Pick:

Mahomes has already put up gaudy numbers and it’s only Week 3 of the NFL schedule. He went off against the Steelers for 326 yards passing and 6 touchdowns. Trevor Kelce had 2 scores and 109 yards. Sammy Watkins got into the fun as well, with 100 yards receiving on 6 receptions. As soon as the Steelers scored a touchdown, Mahomes would gather the troops and go straight down the field and respond. He didn’t show any signs of letting up despite Roethlisberger delivering several blows. In just two games, Mahomes has already passed for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. While he won’t put up 6 touchdowns every week, it looks like he is going to be a terrific player for years to come.

Overall, the Chiefs are averaging 405.5 yards per game in 2018. Last season it was Kareem Hunt who led the Chiefs’ offense to some nice numbers, and now it’s another new starter getting his opportunity to shine. Mahomes has spearheaded an attack that is averaging 40 points per game over the first two games for 1st in the NFL.

The Bucs are the next closest squad with 37.5 points a game. It’s only Week 3, but this certainly doesn’t look like a fluke for the Chiefs. The 49ers have allowed an average of 385 yards per game against the Lions and Vikings, 23rd in the NFL. That lines up just about exactly with what they did in 2017. They finished 24th with an average of 351.6 yards allowed per game.

Mahomes and the excellent weapons he has to work with, are going to make the ‘Niners work for this one at Arrowhead. It’s a hostile environment and Mahomes is making his first ever start at home. I don’t think he’s going to disappoint as he looks to dazzle in his debut in Kansas City. Garoppolo is going to be forced to throw it and then throw it some more on the Chiefs’ defense.

He’s passed for 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions with a 55.9% completion percentage. That’s not great for a guy getting paid the money he is. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are last in the league with 508 yards allowed per game in Week 1 and 2. Note that the next closest, the Bucs, are allowing 443.5 yards a game so it’s not even close.

They allowed an average 32.5 points to the Lions and Vikes. This one likely turns into a shootout with Mahomes lighting the stat sheet up again. Garoppolo better be locked and loaded because he’s going to be counted on to play well against a defense that has allowed 430 passing yards per game. They really need Eric Berry back in the secondary, but the Chiefs are going to have to wait longer, as he’s listed as doubtful for Sunday. Any total featuring the Chiefs in the mid 50’s is going to be worth a look on the OVER this season.

The Bet: OVER 55 (-115)

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.